Key Moments
- Oil prices declined as the US energy secretary reported that transits through the Strait of Hormuz are “meaningfully” increasing.
- Rabobank’s Michael Every points to indications that the US Navy is moving crude through Hormuz with ship transponders off, suggesting flows above what official data capture.
- Renewed crude offers from UAE and Kuwait and higher Saudi jet fuel exports to Europe coexist with lingering tail risks from a potential prolonged Hormuz closure.
Stronger Hormuz Flows Pressure Prices
Rabobank Global Strategist Michael Every reports that oil prices moved lower after comments from the United States (US) energy secretary highlighted a rise in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Every, the statement that Hormuz transits are “meaningfully” climbing coincided with the latest pullback in crude benchmarks.
Every emphasizes that developments in and around the Strait of Hormuz remain a central driver of the oil market, shaping sentiment on both supply continuity and potential disruption.
Unreported Shipments and Hidden Flows
Every underscores what he describes as evidence that actual crude movements through the Strait may exceed what is reflected in standard shipping data. Specifically, he notes indications that the US Navy is facilitating additional oil shipments through Hormuz with vessel transponders switched off. As a result, official data on ship movements may be understating real flows.
He characterizes this discrepancy as highly important for understanding the true state of global oil supply, stating: “That may not get much fanfare, but it is extremely significant if so.”
Regional Supply Response from Gulf Producers
Alongside these hidden flows, Every points to signs of a gradual normalization of regional supply routes. He observes that both United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait have resumed offering crude to buyers in Asia. At the same time, he notes that Saudi Arabia has increased exports of jet fuel to Europe compared with the period before the Hormuz closure.
| Flow Indicator | Direction/Change | Region Affected |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz oil transits | “Meaningfully” climbing | Global |
| US Navy-facilitated crude shipments | Evidence of movements beyond official ship data | Through Strait of Hormuz |
| UAE crude offers | Resumed | Asia |
| Kuwait crude offers | Resumed | Asia |
| Saudi jet fuel exports | Higher than before Hormuz closure | Europe |
Persistent Tail Risks Around Hormuz
Despite these signs of easing constraints, Every cautions that the broader risk profile around the Strait of Hormuz remains unsettled. He warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait still presents unresolved tail risks to the oil market, even as some supply channels reopen and traffic increases.
He also notes that after oil prices slid on the back of rising transit data, they subsequently moved higher following US strikes on Iran. In that context, he highlights a new signal on the expected timing for a full reopening of Hormuz: “Of course, oil then climbed after the US strikes on Iran – and a Hormuz reopening date beyond what we already expected (September) was just flagged.”
This combination of rising but partially hidden flows, renewed offerings from key Gulf producers, and ongoing geopolitical tensions leaves investors weighing near-term supply resilience against the potential for further disruption.
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