Key Moments
- USD/CAD extended its move higher for a third straight session, reaching the 1.3870 area, the highest level since April 13.
- The pair held firm despite a recovery in Crude Oil prices, which typically supports the Canadian Dollar and can limit USD/CAD gains.
- Technical signals remained firmly bullish after a clear break above the 200-day SMA and key Fibonacci retracement levels, with upside targets pointing toward 1.3963.
USD/CAD Extends Breakout as Dollar Strength Persists
The USD/CAD pair continued to advance for a third consecutive session on Thursday, building on the prior day’s breakout above the 1.3810-1.3815 technical barrier. During the Asian session, the pair moved up into the 1.3870 region, marking a new peak since April 13, supported by broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength.
A firmer USD provided the primary tailwind, helping spot prices maintain positive momentum after clearing the recent confluence area. The sustained bid under the Greenback kept USD/CAD on the front foot, reinforcing the bullish tone in the pair.
Safe-Haven Demand and Fed Expectations Support the Greenback
Recent developments in the Middle East conflict weighed on expectations for a negotiated resolution to what is described as a three-month-old Iran war, bolstering demand for the USD’s safe-haven appeal. At the same time, market positioning reflecting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates in 2026 added another layer of support for the Dollar and, by extension, for USD/CAD.
The move higher in USD/CAD came even as Crude Oil prices staged a notable recovery. Typically, stronger oil prices tend to underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (often referred to as the Loonie) and can restrain upside in USD/CAD. The fact that the pair continued to climb in spite of this dynamic suggests that the dominant directional bias for now remains skewed to the upside.
Technical Picture: Bullish Structure Intact
From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD has maintained a constructive bullish profile following Wednesday’s decisive close above both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May decline. That breakout has provided a solid base for the latest leg higher.
The subsequent advance has paused near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering close to the 70 mark, signaling overbought conditions in the short term. Even so, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above zero with a positive histogram, indicating that upside momentum continues to dominate despite the stretched readings.
Given this backdrop, a clear move through the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement area around 1.3875 is viewed as a plausible scenario. Such a break would expose the recent swing high near 1.3963. A sustained push above that level would likely pave the way for a more substantial extension of the prevailing uptrend.
Key Levels to Watch: Upside Targets and Downside Supports
On the downside, initial support is located at the cluster formed by the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement level around 1.3810. Below that zone, additional support is seen at the 50% retracement at 1.3758, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3709.
If the current bullish structure were to deteriorate more meaningfully, deeper pullbacks toward 1.3649 and 1.3552 could start to come into focus. For now, however, those lower levels are viewed as more likely to be tested only if the existing positive trend profile unwinds.
USD/CAD Daily Chart
USD/CAD daily chart
US Dollar Performance vs Major Currencies
The table below shows the intraday percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of major currencies. On this basis, the US Dollar was strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.36% | 0.03% | 0.18% | 0.53% | 0.54% | 0.30% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | 0.08% | -0.28% | -0.12% | 0.24% | 0.28% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.08% | -0.36% | -0.21% | 0.17% | 0.20% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.03% | 0.28% | 0.36% | 0.12% | 0.49% | 0.50% | 0.27% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | 0.12% | 0.21% | -0.12% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.53% | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.49% | -0.38% | 0.04% | -0.24% | |
| NZD | -0.54% | -0.28% | -0.20% | -0.50% | -0.39% | -0.04% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.30% | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.27% | -0.13% | 0.24% | 0.26% |
The heat map illustrates percentage changes between major currencies. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, selecting the US Dollar in the left column and the Japanese Yen in the top row shows the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.
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