Key Moments
- Wheat futures traded mostly lower early Thursday after following Tuesday’s limit gains with declines across all three major exchanges on Wednesday.
- Day 2 of the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour reported an average yield of 39.3 bpa, below last year’s 53.3 bpa for the same day of the tour.
- Analysts expected USDA’s Export Sales report to show 2025/26 wheat sales between 50,000-150,000 MT and new-crop sales between 100,000 MT and 350,00 MT.
Futures Retreat Following Prior Session Surge
Wheat prices were mostly weaker in early Thursday trade, extending the pullback that followed Tuesday’s limit-up move.
On Wednesday, Chicago SRW futures finished the session between unchanged and 3 1/2 cents lower, with open interest increasing by 3,742 contracts. KC HRW futures settled 4 3/4 to 7 3/4 cents lower, while open interest there rose by 1,522 contracts. MPLS spring wheat contracts declined by 4 to 4 1/4 cents across most maturities.
There were 19 deliveries posted overnight against May CBT wheat, with the May contract set to expire today.
Spot and Deferred Contract Moves
The latest quoted settlements and early Thursday indications for key wheat contracts were as follows:
| Contract | Prior Close | Change at Close | Current Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 CBOT Wheat | $6.75 1/2 | down 3 1/2 cents | currently down 5 1/2 cents |
| Sep 26 CBOT Wheat | $6.88 1/4 | down 3 1/4 cents | currently down 6 cents |
| Jul 26 KCBT Wheat | $7.24 3/4 | down 6 1/2 cents | currently down 7 1/2 cents |
| Sep 26 KCBT Wheat | $7.36 | down 6 1/4 cents | currently down 7 3/4 cents |
| Jul 26 MIAX Wheat | $7.20 3/4 | down 4 1/4 cents | currently down 1/2 cents |
| Sep 26 MIAX Wheat | $7.41 3/4 | down 4 cents | currently down 1/4 cents |
Kansas Crop Tour Signals Lower Yields
Day 2 results from the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour showed an average yield estimate of 39.3 bpa. That was the lowest Day 2 reading for the tour since 2023 and stood below the 53.3 bpa figure reported for Day 2 last year.
The tour was scheduled to conclude on Thursday, with the overall average yield for the event expected to be released later in the day.
Market Focus on USDA Export Sales
Traders were awaiting USDA’s Export Sales report, due this morning. Analyst expectations for 2025/26 wheat sales ranged from 50,000 MT to 150,000 MT. Projections for new-crop wheat sales were in a range of 100,000 MT to 350,00 MT.
International Production Outlooks
Expana raised its 2026/27 EU wheat production estimate by 0.1 MMT from the prior month to 128.8 MMT.
The Rosario Grains Exchanges projected Argentina’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 18-19 MMT, sharply lower than the 29.5 MMT reported for the previous year.
Disclosure
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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