Key Moments
- European wheat flat prices moved lower as Matif futures retreated from recent highs, while cash premiums in major origins largely held steady.
- Corn export premiums and outright prices declined in Argentina and at the US Gulf, while Brazilian basis levels showed mixed moves between Santos and the Northern Arc.
- Soybean cash activity was muted during China’s Labor Day holiday, with CFR China values edging slightly lower and Brazilian FOB premiums turning marginally firmer week on week.
Wheat: Futures-Led Pullback in Europe, Mixed Trends Across Export Hubs
European wheat prices softened as Matif futures retreated following earlier strength, with technical signals indicating overbought conditions and encouraging market participants to take profits.
The futures decline translated directly into lower flat cash values, while physical premiums were mostly unchanged. As a result, underlying spot demand showed minimal adjustment.
Premiums in France, Germany and the Baltic region shifted only marginally, reflecting sellers’ willingness to maintain basis levels even as they lowered outright offers in line with weaker futures.
Market participants described the move as driven primarily by the futures market rather than by any significant deterioration in demand, with basis levels broadly resilient.
Key European and Mediterranean Wheat Assessments
| Origin / Grade | Basis / Location | Loading / Shipment | Price | Weekly Change | Assessment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat 11% | FOB France | June | $232.00 per tonne | – $11.25 per tonne | May 7 |
| Wheat 12.5% | FOB Baltic | June | $239.25 per tonne | – $11.00 per tonne | May 7 |
| Wheat 12.5% | FOB Poland | June | $239.75 per tonne | – $11.00 per tonne | May 7 |
| Wheat 12.5% | FOB Germany | June | $240.25 per tonne | – $10.50 per tonne | May 7 |
| Wheat 11.5% | FOB Russia | June | $241.50 per tonne | + $0.50 per tonne | Thursday |
| Wheat 11.5% | FOB Ukraine | June | $236.00 per tonne | + $2.50 per tonne | Thursday |
| Feed wheat | FOB Ukraine POC | – | $230 per tonne | + $1 per tonne | Thursday |
| Wheat 11.5% | FOB CVB (EU Black Sea) | June | $237.75 per tonne | – $5.00 per tonne | Thursday |
| Wheat 12.5% | FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas | June | $242.75 per tonne | – $1.75 per tonne | Thursday |
| Feed wheat | FOB Constanta/Varna/Burgas | June | $229.75 per tonne | – $10.00 per tonne | Thursday |
In the Mediterranean, Algeria’s state grain agency OAIC bought 11.5% wheat on Wednesday at $268-270 per tonne CFR for July shipment, securing at least 390,000 tonnes. The purchase price was only $2 per tonne below its prior tender for June shipment, which closed on March 26.
Australian Wheat Supported by Weather and Export Flows
Australian wheat prices remained underpinned as dry conditions persisted in New South Wales and Queensland. While some rainfall was anticipated in these areas, it was not viewed as sufficient to alter prevailing market sentiment. Western Australia remained the only major exporting state at present, lending additional support to prices.
Fastmarkets’ daily assessment for wheat 10.5% FOB Australia W APW rose by $3 per tonne week on week to $277 per tonne for June loading on Thursday. Wheat 9.5% FOB Australia W ASW also gained $3 per tonne to $272 per tonne in Western Australia.
Black Sea Wheat: Russia Stable, Ukraine Firms
In the Black Sea region, Russian wheat prices were broadly steady, with bids and offers fluctuating within a narrow band. Ukrainian values, in contrast, moved higher.
Trade sources indicated that recent wheat sales to Indonesia were concluded at the equivalent of $236-237 per tonne FOB, and market expectations were that volumes for the Algerian tender would be placed near similar levels. Participants anticipated that forthcoming deals would likely align with these price points.
Fastmarkets assessed wheat 12.5% FOB Russia at $241.50 per tonne for June shipment on Thursday, up by $0.50 per tonne week on week, while wheat 11.5% FOB Russia remained unchanged at $236.00 per tonne.
The wheat 11.5% FOB Ukraine assessment increased by $2.50 per tonne to $236.00 per tonne for June loading on Thursday. Feed wheat FOB Ukraine Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) moved up by $1 per tonne to $230 per tonne on the same day.
North and South American Wheat: Mostly Stable, With Argentina Firming
US export wheat markets were largely unchanged during the week, with Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW) indicators showing little variation.
For 11% hard red winter (HRW) wheat FOB US Gulf, premiums held at $1.30 per bushel over the July Kansas HRW futures contract for June shipment and $1.25 per bushel over the same contract for July.
Soft red winter (SRW) wheat with 10.5% protein FOB US Gulf also stayed stable, with June at 75 cents per bushel over the July Chicago SRW futures contract and July at 60 cents per bushel over that contract.
In the PNW, 10% soft white wheat prices were unchanged at $246 per tonne for June and $244 per tonne for July.
US wheat export inspections reached 434,204 tonnes in the week to April 30, an increase of 17% compared with the previous week, based on USDA data.
In Canada, western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver premiums held firm, with both June and July at 93 cents per bushel over the July Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) futures contract. Canadian durum remained steady, with 14.5% cargoes at $280 per tonne FOB Vancouver and $295 per tonne FOB St. Lawrence.
Argentine wheat values rose on the week. Fastmarkets’ assessment for wheat 11.5% FOB Argentina in the Up River hub for June climbed sharply to $240 per tonne. For new-crop December, indications advanced by $3-5 per tonne week on week, with offers and bids reported at $250 per tonne and $240 per tonne, respectively, on Friday May 8.
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