WTI Stays Above $98 as Tensions Offset OPEC Move Supply

Key Moments

WTI bounced from a gap-down open near $96.45; however, it still trades over 1% lower, just above the mid-$98.00s.
Meanwhile, rising Iran-related risks in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran talks continue to support crude prices.
However, OPEC+ approved a 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase for June, while a stronger US Dollar limits further gains.

Geopolitical Risk Supports WTI After Gap-Down Open

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil contract, attracted dip-buyers after it opened the week with a bearish gap near $96.45 on Monday.
As a result, prices rebounded slightly. However, during the Asian session, WTI still showed modest intraday losses.
At the latest check, it trades just above the mid-$98.00s, remaining more than 1% lower on the day as mixed factors weigh on sentiment.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said the United States would attempt to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.
Shortly after, Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, warned that any US move in the region would violate the ceasefire.
Consequently, traders raised their expectations of further escalation, which renewed concerns about potential supply disruptions.

At the same time, US-Iran peace talks continue to stall. Because of this lack of progress, markets maintain a geopolitical risk premium, which supports crude prices.

OPEC+ Output Hike and Stronger Dollar Restrain Gains

On the supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to increase production for a third straight month.
Specifically, the group approved a combined rise of 188,000 barrels per day for June across seven member nations.

Meanwhile, renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) continues to pressure crude prices for a third consecutive session.
In addition, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and growing expectations of a potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) support the Greenback.
Therefore, traders should remain cautious before assuming that the recent pullback from last Thursday’s near two-month high has fully run its course.

Market Drivers at a Glance

Factor	Detail	Impact on WTI
Price action	WTI opened with a gap near $96.45 and now trades just above mid-$98.00s, still over 1% lower	Mixed – prices recovered from lows but losses remain
Geopolitics	US plans in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s warning, along with stalled talks	Supportive – increases supply disruption risks
OPEC+ policy	Third monthly output increase, adding 188,000 barrels per day in June	Negative – points to higher supply
US Dollar	Stronger USD driven by uncertainty and Fed rate hike expectations	Negative – pressures oil prices

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil traded on global markets. The term stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of the three main oil benchmarks alongside Brent and Dubai Crude.
Traders often call it “light” and “sweet” due to its low density and sulfur content.
Because of these qualities, refiners process it easily.
Producers source WTI in the United States and distribute it through the Cushing hub, widely known as the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World.”
As a result, WTI serves as a key benchmark, and media outlets frequently quote its price.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Supply and demand drive WTI Oil prices. For instance, strong global growth increases demand, while weaker growth reduces it.
In addition, political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and shift prices.
Moreover, decisions by OPEC play a major role, since the group controls significant output levels.
The US Dollar also matters because oil trades mainly in USD.
Therefore, a weaker dollar often makes oil cheaper for buyers, while a stronger dollar has the opposite effect.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil?

Weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence WTI prices.
When inventories fall, markets usually interpret it as stronger demand, which pushes prices higher.
Conversely, rising inventories signal excess supply and can drag prices down.
The API releases its report every Tuesday, while the EIA follows on Wednesday.
Although both reports often align, traders generally view EIA data as more reliable because it comes from a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, includes 12 major oil producers that set output targets during regular meetings.
When the group cuts production, it tightens supply and typically lifts prices.
On the other hand, when OPEC raises output, prices often fall.
Additionally, OPEC+ expands the group to include ten non-OPEC countries, most notably Russia, which further strengthens its influence on global oil markets.