EUR/GBP Steadies at Support Before ECB and BoE Calls

Key Moments

EUR/GBP has stabilized around the 0.8650-0.8655 support zone while facing resistance just below 0.8680.
Both the ECB and BoE are expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, with the ECB seen signaling possible hikes later and the BoE favoring policy stability.
Technical signals point to a potential double bottom near 0.8650, with bullish divergences emerging on RSI and MACD.

EUR/GBP Steady in Tight Range Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

The Euro (EUR) is advancing modestly against the British Pound (GBP) for a second straight session on Wednesday, yet the move remains confined within this week’s trading band. Attempts to push higher continue to stall beneath the 0.8680 area, even as recent price behavior hints at a possible change in trend direction.

Market participants are positioning ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), which are shaping expectations for the next phase of EUR/GBP price action.

ECB Seen on Hold but Likely to Flag Future Tightening

The ECB is broadly anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged, opting to wait for additional information to better gauge how the war in the Middle East is influencing growth and inflation dynamics. Policymakers at the ECB have nevertheless signaled a readiness to tighten further, making it likely that the bank will allude to a potential rate increase in June or July.

BoE Expected to Maintain Policy Amid Weak Labor Market

The BoE is also expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged on Thursday. Unlike the ECB, however, the UK central bank is viewed as more inclined to preserve its current stance for a longer period. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated earlier in April that there is no need to adjust policy given the softness in the labor market and limited corporate pricing power, a position that could lend some support to the Euro against the Pound.

Technical Outlook: Double Bottom Structure Emerging Near 0.8650

From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP continues to move within a descending channel and remains constrained by nearby resistance levels overhead. The pair has, however, established a notable floor in the 0.8650-0.8655 region, where price action is suggesting the emergence of a potential double bottom pattern, a formation that often precedes a reversal in trend.

Short-term indicators on the 4-hour chart are signaling that bearish momentum may be easing. A bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line edging modestly into positive territory indicate early signs of renewed buying interest.

On the upside, the first key resistance level sits at the April 24 high of 0.8682, which coincides with the neckline of the potential double bottom. A move above that level would bring the top of the descending channel near 0.8700 into view. A confirmed break of 0.8700 would then shift focus to the 0.8720 zone, corresponding to the highs recorded on April 13, 17, and 21.

On the downside, a drop below 0.8655 would likely reinvigorate selling pressure, exposing the lower boundary of the channel around 0.8645. Further weakness could target the 0.8630-0.8637 band, an area that repeatedly limited downside moves in late March.

Euro Performance Against Major Currencies This Week

The table below summarizes the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) versus a selection of major currencies this week. Over this period, the Euro has shown its strongest relative performance against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.06%	0.02%	0.19%	-0.03%	-0.37%	0.15%	0.29%
EUR	0.06%		0.10%	0.21%	0.07%	-0.27%	0.23%	0.37%
GBP	-0.02%	-0.10%		0.15%	-0.04%	-0.39%	0.13%	0.27%
JPY	-0.19%	-0.21%	-0.15%		-0.16%	-0.53%	0.07%	0.22%
CAD	0.03%	-0.07%	0.04%	0.16%		-0.29%	0.24%	0.31%
AUD	0.37%	0.27%	0.39%	0.53%	0.29%		0.52%	0.65%
NZD	-0.15%	-0.23%	-0.13%	-0.07%	-0.24%	-0.52%		0.14%
CHF	-0.29%	-0.37%	-0.27%	-0.22%	-0.31%	-0.65%	-0.14%

The heat map shows percentage moves of major currencies against one another. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro as the base from the left column and moving horizontally to the US Dollar cell shows the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).