Euro Slips Toward 1.1750 as Traders Await ZEW & US-Iran

Key Moments

EUR/USD Under Pressure Ahead of Key Risk Events

The Euro (EUR) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, sliding to intraday lows slightly above 1.1750 after being unable to sustain Monday’s advance beyond 1.1790. Despite the pullback, the broader upward bias from late-March levels remains intact.

Traders have shifted into a cautious, wait-and-see stance as they look toward fresh readings for Eurozone economic sentiment and monitor developments around US-Iran peace discussions.

Geopolitical Backdrop: US-Iran Talks Support Mild Optimism

According to The Wall Street Journal, Tehran informed regional mediators that it intends to send a delegation to Pakistan, following a threat on Monday to withdraw from the process after the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship. In addition, Reuters cited an unnamed US source stating that “things are moving forward”, which has contributed to a moderate degree of optimism in financial markets.

ZEW Sentiment: Expectations Remain Subdued

In the Eurozone, attention is centered on the German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, which is expected to underscore the impact of the energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

Consensus expectations point to a further deterioration in German sentiment in April, while Eurozone sentiment is projected to improve but remain in negative territory, signaling a cautious outlook for the near term.

For Germany, the Economic Sentiment Index is expected to fall to -5 in April from -0.5 in March, which would mark its weakest level in the last 12 months. For the Eurozone as a whole, the index is projected to rise to -3.6 from -8.5, but remain below zero, reflecting a still-pessimistic view of the short-term economic outlook.

What the ZEW Economic Sentiment Measures

Economic Sentiment data published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung captures institutional investor sentiment by measuring the difference between the proportion of optimists and pessimists.

As described:

“Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).”

and:

“A positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists. Usually, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).”

Technical Picture: Consolidation Below 1.1800

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD continues to respect its upward trajectory from late March, but recent price behavior suggests growing indecision as the pair struggles to clear the 1.1800 zone. Short-term indicators on the 4-hour chart are pointing to waning bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index has been fluctuating around the 50 midpoint, suggesting the absence of a clear directional bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, indicating diminishing upside pressure rather than a firm shift into bearish territory at this stage.

On the topside, buying interest stalled in the 1.1790 area earlier on Tuesday, temporarily blocking a move toward Friday’s peak near 1.1850. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with Monday’s low around 1.1730, followed by an ascending trendline currently near 1.1705. A decisive break under that region would expose a band of support between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which contained selling pressure on April 8, 9, 10, and 13.

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