GBP/JPY Holds Steady Amid Geopolitical and Energy Risks

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: April 6, 2026

Key Moments

GBP/JPY trades nearly unchanged around 210.85-210.90 during the early European session on Monday.
Markets monitor the Strait of Hormuz situation after US President Donald Trump set a Tuesday 08:00 PM ET deadline for Iran to reopen the passage.
Technical structure shows an ascending consolidation pattern, with price capped below the 20-day EMA near 211.50 and resistance around 213.40.

Geopolitical Tensions Anchor GBP/JPY Around 211

The GBP/JPY cross is little changed, trading near 210.85 in early European hours on Monday, as traders remain cautious amid elevated geopolitical risks. The pair is consolidating while market participants look for clarity on the status of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly 20% of global oil shipments, which has been seized by Iran during the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

United States (US) President Donald Trump has threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 08:00 PM Eastern time (ET). In response, a spokesperson from the Iranian foreign ministry has warned of reciprocal attacks on related US facilities.

With both the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan classified as net energy importers, any sustained rise in oil prices presents a negative backdrop for their economies and currencies. Higher energy costs add to inflation pressures and weigh on growth prospects, complicating the policy outlook for their central banks.

Monetary Policy Outlook for BoE and BoJ

On the policy front, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are seen as unlikely to pursue near-term interest rate cuts. The uptrend in oil prices has boosted global inflation expectations, reducing the incentive for immediate monetary easing in both the UK and Japan.

GBP/JPY Technical Picture: Ascending Consolidation

As of writing, GBP/JPY is trading close to 210.90, reflecting a neutral near-term bias with a mild bearish lean. The cross is hovering just beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 211.50, signaling that the upside momentum observed earlier in the month has faded.

Price action is currently compressed within a developing pattern formed by an ascending support trend line drawn from 207.26 and a descending resistance trend line from 213.38. This configuration points to an ascending consolidation phase rather than a clear continuation of the previous trend.

Momentum indicators reinforce this rangebound backdrop. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating between 40.00 and 60.00, a band typically associated with volatility contraction and limited directional conviction.

Key Technical Levels

Initial overhead resistance is located at the descending trend line near 213.40. A daily close above that zone would be required to open the way toward retesting the February peak at 215.00. On the downside, immediate support is identified at the March 2 low around 209.00, followed by the February 17 low at 207.24.

Level	Type	Reference
215.00	Resistance	February high
213.40	Resistance	Descending trend line
211.50	Indicator	20-day EMA
210.85-210.90	Spot	Early European session / current price
209.00	Support	March 2 low
207.24	Support	February 17 low

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

(This story was corrected at 06:30 GMT to say in the second paragraph that the deadline for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz is Tuesday 08:00 ET not 09:00 ET).