Key Moments
- Societe Generale analysts indicate USD/MXN has formed an interim low near 17.10 and is currently in a short-term rebound within a broader consolidation phase.
- The 18.00/18.20 region, aligned with the 200-DMA and the January peak, is identified as a pivotal resistance band that could cap further gains.
- Support around 17.44 is described as crucial, with a break below this level seen as a signal that the broader downtrend may resume.
Policy Outlook and Inflation Backdrop in Mexico
“For Mexico, we pencil in no change at 7.0%. Headline CPI accelerated to 4.63% yoy in first half of March, well above the 3% target of Banxico. Market consensus is for an extended pause until evidence emerges that inflation is converging back to 3%. Inflation forecasts and guidance will be updated.”
Technical View on USD/MXN
“USD/MXN established an interim low near 17.10 in February and has since embarked on a short‑term rebound. The 18.00/18.20 zone which corresponds to the January peak and the 200‑DMA, could act as an interim resistance zone.”
“So far in March, the pair has evolved within a broad consolidation range. The lower boundary of this range, near 17.44, serves an important support. A break below this may denote risk of extension in the downtrend.”
Key Technical Levels
| Level / Indicator | Value / Zone | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Interim low | 17.10 | Short-term floor established in February |
| Support boundary | 17.44 | Lower limit of current consolidation; break may signal downtrend extension |
| Key resistance band | 18.00/18.20 | Zone aligned with January peak and 200-DMA, viewed as interim cap |
| Policy rate assumption | 7.0% | Societe Generale expectation of no change |
| Headline CPI (first half of March) | 4.63% yoy | Above Banxico’s 3% target |
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