Key Moments
- Brent crude and WTI futures have surged amid intensified Middle East conflict and an effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Rabobank now projects crude and product flows through the region to recover only gradually to about 80% of pre-war volumes by August.
- The bank has raised its Brent and WTI price forecasts through 2028, citing ongoing disruption risks and potential further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Strategists Flag Prolonged Disruption to Gulf Energy Flows
Rabobank strategists Michael Every, Florence Schmit, and Joe DeLaura report that Brent crude has climbed sharply as the Middle East war escalates and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. They expect energy shipments to recover only slowly, reaching roughly 80% of pre-war levels by August.
In response, the team has revised higher its crude price outlook. They now see Brent averaging $107/bbl in Q2 2026, $96/bbl in Q3 2026, and $90/bbl in Q4 2026. Their forecasts for WTI call for averages of $98/bbl, $88/bbl, and $83/bbl for Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026, respectively.
Benchmarks React to Extended Supply Shock
The strategists note that:
“Brent and WTI crude oil benchmarks surged to nearly $120 a barrel on 19 March as the war in the Middle East deepened and attacks on energy assets intensified. While paper prices stayed below the $120/bbl mark, physical prices have already surpassed these levels, with Dubai crude exceeding $150–166/bbl. Markets are slowly repricing the risk of a prolonged disruption to global energy flows.”
They emphasize that their earlier assessment of how quickly flows might normalize has been pushed back substantially:
“We have earlier noted that it would take months for energy flows to resume to pre-war levels once the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. As it stands now that timeline has just shifted further back and we expect a full closure of the Strait to last until the end of April. Shipping will only slowly return after that and we expect crude oil and refined product flows to resume to around 80% of pre-war levels by August.”
Revised Brent and WTI Price Projections
Rabobank has raised its targets for both major crude benchmarks following what it describes as a “material deterioration” in the likelihood of a rapid restoration in energy flows.
The strategists state:
“We are raising our Brent and WTI crude oil targets again after a material deterioration to the prospect of any swift resumption of energy flows. We estimate that Brent will average $107/bbl in Q2, $96/bbl in Q3, and $90/bbl in Q4. We have raised our 2027 estimates up to $83/bbl on average for the year before moderating to $71.50/bbl in 2028. Our WTI quarterly average estimates are $98/bbl, $88/bbl, and $83/bbl for Q2-Q3-Q4 of 2026 and $77/bbl for 2027.”
Forecast Summary Table
| Benchmark | Period | Average Price Forecast ($/bbl) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | Q2 2026 | $107 |
| Brent | Q3 2026 | $96 |
| Brent | Q4 2026 | $90 |
| Brent | Full year 2027 | $83 |
| Brent | Full year 2028 | $71.50 |
| WTI | Q2 2026 | $98 |
| WTI | Q3 2026 | $88 |
| WTI | Q4 2026 | $83 |
| WTI | Full year 2027 | $77 |
Persistent Geopolitical Risk to Energy Infrastructure
Beyond the baseline disruption already reflected in their forecasts, the Rabobank strategists highlight an additional layer of risk tied to potential further damage to Gulf energy assets:
“We also see risk of further attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf inflicting lasting supply curtailments, posing significant upside price risk to our natural gas and crude oil views.”
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