AUD/USD Gains as Markets Expect More RBA Rate Hikes

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: March 16, 2026

Key Moments

AUD/USD trades about 0.5% higher near 0.7015 during early European hours on Monday after a two-day sell-off.
Markets anticipate the RBA will raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 4.1% at Tuesday’s policy meeting, following February’s move to 3.85%.
Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% band at its decision on Wednesday, tempering US Dollar gains.

Australian Dollar Strengthens on Hawkish RBA Expectations

AUD/USD advances to around 0.7015 in early European trading on Monday, up approximately 0.5%, as the Australian Dollar outperforms major peers. The pair recovers after a sharp two-day decline, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver another interest rate increase at its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

The RBA is anticipated to lift its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, amid heightened inflation expectations driven by rising oil prices. At its previous policy meeting in February, the central bank also raised the OCR by 25 basis points to 3.85% and signaled that further rate hikes remained possible, citing upside risks to inflation.

Oil prices have surged in recent weeks following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid conflicts in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. This move in energy markets has reinforced the case for additional tightening in Australia, according to current market pricing.

Australian Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies

The Australian Dollar has shown broad-based strength, with notable gains against the Swiss Franc. The table below presents the percentage change of the AUD against key currencies today.

Australian Dollar Price Today

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD	—	-0.09%	-0.16%	-0.22%	0.02%	-0.49%	-0.61%	-0.02%
EUR	0.09%	—	0.02%	-0.13%	0.12%	-0.39%	-0.39%	0.07%
GBP	0.16%	-0.02%	—	-0.06%	0.10%	-0.41%	-0.44%	0.10%
JPY	0.22%	0.13%	0.06%	—	0.26%	-0.27%	-0.22%	0.21%
CAD	-0.02%	-0.12%	-0.10%	-0.26%	—	-0.51%	-0.54%	-0.02%
AUD	0.49%	0.39%	0.41%	0.27%	0.51%	—	-0.02%	0.58%
NZD	0.61%	0.39%	0.44%	0.22%	0.54%	0.02%	—	0.54%
CHF	0.02%	-0.07%	-0.10%	-0.21%	0.02%	-0.58%	-0.54%	—

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Fed Rate Outlook Tempers US Dollar Rally

The US Dollar is easing slightly after a strong advance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement on Wednesday. Market participants expect the Fed to keep its benchmark rate unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range, which is contributing to a modest pullback in the USD and providing additional support to AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Picture

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading close to 0.7015. The short-term outlook remains neutral as the pair is hovering near the flattened 20-day Exponential Moving Average around 0.7053.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index is fluctuating between 40.00 and 60.00 after slipping out of the 60.00-80.00 band, indicating that upside momentum has faded from earlier overbought conditions and that price action is now more consistent with a range-trading environment.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at Friday’s high around 0.7100, where recent intraday peaks are grouped just below last week’s 0.7120-0.7150 ceiling. A daily close above that zone would reopen scope toward the mid-0.72 area. On the downside, first support is located at the March 3 low of 0.6944, followed by the February 6 trough near 0.6900. A sustained break below the latter would increase the probability of a deeper corrective move targeting the 0.6770-0.6800 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

RBA Interest Rate Decision: Key Indicator for AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.

Next release:
Tue Mar 17, 2026 03:30