Key Moments
- AUD/JPY trades near 111.80 in early European dealings, holding above the 100-day EMA at 105.60.
- Support sits at 110.10, with resistance around 112.50. RSI at 65 shows firm but not overbought momentum.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential safe-haven flows into JPY remain key drivers.
Cross Strengthened by AUD and Risk Appetite
AUD/JPY is trading around 111.80 in early European hours, maintaining a positive technical setup above its 100-day EMA. Immediate support is seen at 110.10, while resistance is expected near 112.50. The RSI reading at 65 indicates healthy momentum without signaling overextension.
The Australian Dollar benefits from stronger trade data out of China, with exports expanding more than expected in early 2026. This trend has helped AUD maintain upward pressure against the Yen, even as market participants watch geopolitical risks closely.
RBA Comments and Geopolitical Context
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that oil price swings and Middle East developments pose challenges for monetary policy. He emphasized that the RBA’s actions will depend on the persistence of price shocks, which remain uncertain.
Meanwhile, investors are monitoring headlines from the Middle East. Any escalation could strengthen safe-haven demand for the Yen, potentially capping AUD/JPY gains or causing temporary declines.
Technical Picture: Trend Remains Upward
On the daily chart, AUD/JPY trades at 111.79. The 100-day EMA at 105.60 supports the ongoing uptrend. The pair sits above the middle Bollinger Band around 110.10, approaching the upper band near 112.50. This pattern suggests steady upside momentum. RSI at 65 confirms strong bullish sentiment but shows the market is not yet overbought, leaving room for further appreciation.
Key Levels: Support and Resistance
| Level Type | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price | 111.79 | Current daily chart level |
| Immediate support | 110.10 | Middle Bollinger Band and recent consolidation |
| Next support | 109.20 | Previous range highs and lower half of recent band |
| Deeper support | 107.70 | Lower Bollinger Band from late February |
| Trend-supportive zone | 105.60 | Rising 100-day EMA |
| Immediate resistance | 112.50 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| Next upside target | 114.00 | Breakout objective above 112.50 |
Initial downside protection is near 110.10, followed by 109.20 and then 107.70. On the upside, 112.50 is the first key barrier. A sustained move above it could push the pair toward 114.00.
Japanese Yen: Core Drivers
The Japanese Yen is highly traded and sensitive to the Bank of Japan’s policy, the yield gap between Japanese and US bonds, and overall market risk sentiment. BoJ interventions have historically aimed to weaken the Yen but remain limited due to trade partner sensitivities.
Ultra-loose BoJ policy from 2013–2024 weakened the Yen versus major currencies. Since 2024, gradual policy normalization has supported the Yen. It also acts as a safe-haven asset. In times of uncertainty, investors often rotate into JPY, which can strengthen it even during a broader AUD rally.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
