Key Moments
- Deutsche Bank reaffirmed a bullish stance on silver, citing renewed outperformance of white metals versus gold.
- The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 57, below the bank’s longer-term assumption range of 60-65 for end-2026 and 2027.
- Deutsche Bank’s year-end silver forecast of $100/oz, based on a gold-silver ratio of 60, is now seen as having upside risk.
White Metals Regain Momentum Against Gold
Deutsche Bank has reiterated its constructive outlook on silver, highlighting improving relative performance within the white metals segment and evidence of firm investor positioning.
White metals have recently started to outperform gold again, a trend that, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh, “is beginning to defy the neat and tidy historical template of silver outperformance followed by a partial retracement.”
Gold-Silver Ratio Signals Tightening Relative Value
The bank noted a marked move in the gold-silver ratio, which has declined to 57. This level is now below Deutsche Bank’s longer-term assumption range of 60-65 for end-2026 and 2027.
The ratio, which reflects how many ounces of silver are required to purchase one ounce of gold, is widely followed as a measure of relative value between the two precious metals.
| Metric | Current Level / Assumption | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Gold-silver ratio | 57 | Below Deutsche Bank’s 60-65 assumption range for end-2026 and 2027 |
| Year-end silver forecast | $100/oz | Based on a gold-silver ratio of 60; bank now sees upside risk |
| Base gold price forecast | $6,000/oz | Higher outperformance vs USD could support $6,900/oz |
Positioning and Derivatives: Strong Sentiment for Silver
Hsueh pointed to sentiment gauges that remain notably firm. He observed that the three-month silver risk reversal has risen to its highest level of the year and has, in fact, touched a new 20-year peak.
He also highlighted the return of Shanghai M1-M2 backwardation in silver after the Lunar New Year holiday, with the structure still trading above levels seen in January.
Combined, these indicators “present upside risk to our year-end silver forecast of $100/oz, based on a gold-silver ratio of 60,” Hsueh wrote.
White Metals Performance Within the Precious Metals Complex
The recent price action has unfolded against a broader upswing across the precious metals space, according to Hsueh. He noted that white metals have again moved to outperform gold, even as the previously elevated lease rates for silver and platinum have moderated.
Gold’s Relationship With the U.S. Dollar
Looking across the precious metals complex, Hsueh also underscored changing dynamics between gold and the U.S. dollar. He pointed out that gold has recently shifted back into outperformance versus the dollar when measured by its trailing 60-day beta.
He described this as a supportive signal for Deutsche Bank’s constructive view on gold, while cautioning that there is “still a long way to go before matching the outperformance seen in the last two years.”
If gold were to re-establish an outperformance versus the dollar similar to what was observed previously, Hsueh said that would align more closely with gold reaching $6,900 per ounce, compared with Deutsche Bank’s base case projection of $6,000.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
