Key Moments:
- Analysts anticipate another strong quarter for Nvidia, driven by AI infrastructure demand and next-generation chip shipments.
- Forecasts highlight potential revenue upside from Blackwell systems, China-bound H200 shipments and rising hyperscaler capital expenditures.
- Commentary suggests Nvidia’s results could act as a key market catalyst, with close attention on data center growth, margins and forward guidance.
Analysts Expect Robust Quarter and Positive Guidance
Investing.com – Nvidia is projected to post another period of substantial growth with constructive guidance, as analysts flag ongoing strength in AI infrastructure spending, increased volumes of next-generation chips and sustained momentum in data center investments.
Stifel analyst Ruben Roy told investors in a preview note that his projections for the fiscal fourth quarter remain largely aligned with his views from three months earlier, emphasizing that the company is still navigating “a well-understood demand acceleration story against longer-term concerns on the sustainability of AI infrastructure spend.”
He added that Stifel remains positive on the name, stating Nvidia is “still in the early innings of what we expect to be a long-tailed investment cycle for AI infrastructure.”
Roy said discussions with management at CES, combined with higher capital-expenditure expectations from hyperscalers for 2026, indicate that estimates are “likely moving higher post the 4Q report.”
Revenue Projections and AI Hardware Drivers
KeyBanc’s John Vinh is calling for fourth-quarter revenue of $69 billion and first-quarter guidance in a range of $74 billion to $75 billion, supported by the ramp of Blackwell B300/GB300 shipments, which he notes carry higher average selling prices.
Vinh estimates that H200 shipments destined for China will contribute $3 billion to $3.5 billion in the quarter and an additional $2 billion to $3 billion in the April quarter. He also anticipates data center revenue will advance 24% sequentially, with compute revenue up 27%, while cautioning that GDDR memory constraints could pose a headwind for the gaming segment.
| Metric | Analyst | Period | Estimate / Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Revenue | John Vinh (KeyBanc) | Fiscal Q4 | $69 billion |
| Q1 Revenue Guidance | John Vinh (KeyBanc) | Next quarter | $74 billion – $75 billion |
| China-bound H200 shipments | John Vinh (KeyBanc) | Current quarter | $3 billion – $3.5 billion |
| China-bound H200 shipments | John Vinh (KeyBanc) | April quarter | $2 billion – $3 billion |
| Data center revenue | John Vinh (KeyBanc) | Sequential change | +24% |
| Compute revenue | John Vinh (KeyBanc) | Sequential change | +27% |
Market Strategists Highlight Demand Strength and Constraints
Peter Corey, Chief Market Strategist at Pave Finance, said in comments to Investing.com that “NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings should reflect strong results and a confident outlook, with recent channel checks appearing broadly optimistic.”
“While DRAM shortages and power bottlenecks remain potential obstacles, the demand data we’re seeing doesn’t suggest those constraints are materially dampening end demand at this stage,” Corey added. “If NVIDIA delivers solid earnings and the market continues to sell off – particularly across KKR, BLK, OWL and IGV – then that divergence would be a reason to become more defensive, as it would imply the tape is trading more on risk appetite than fundamentals.”
Views on Valuation, Capex Cycles and Longer-Term Spending
Northwestern Mutual’s Chief Portfolio Manager, Matt Stucky, stated: “Despite hotter than expected capex in the 4Q from the hyperscalers, revenue estimates for NVDA’s 4Q have been mostly flat the last few months with consensus at 65.8B for Q4 (guided to 65.0 at midpoint) and expecting a guide of 72.6B for Q1 FY27.”
“NVDA should be able to deliver the usual 2-3B of upside driven by unit growth in rack scale Blackwell systems and mix shift towards Blackwell Ultra which carries 20-30% higher pricing versus GB200,” he added. “This dynamic should continue into Q1 where NVDA should be able to guide to at least $74B of revenue driven by continued growth in hyperscaler capex and GB300 system growth.”
Stucky also noted that when it comes to commentary on sustained spending into 2027, “NVDA is trading 21x where we think earnings could ultimately land in FY 27 (CY 26) ~9/sh. That implies some form of a cyclical peak in spending, which isn’t the message hyperscalers are giving.”
Stock Trading Range and Potential Breakout Catalyst
Turning to Nvidia’s share price behavior ahead of the release, David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, told Investing.com that Nvidia stock has been confined to a band between $170 and $195 for an extended period as investors debate the payoff from AI investments and potential competitive pressures.
He acknowledged that the upcoming update on Wednesday could serve as a pivotal moment. “There is an opportunity for a breakout in the share price,” he said, highlighting that the market will scrutinize data center revenue, cloud spending and profitability metrics.
“The initial headlines will be around revenues and earnings per share, and how these match up to expectations,” he added. “In addition, Nvidia has often surprised investors with bullish forward guidance. If there’s good news here, then that should underpin the share price.”
Morrison stated that “data centre revenue, chip demand and hyperscale cloud spending are all important elements,” while competition and margins will also feature.
He concluded: “There’s a lot at play here for the world’s largest company by market capitalisation. There was a time when Nvidia’s stock seemed to only go higher. That’s less of a certainty now. But however it goes, Nvidia’s results will have important implications for the broader market.”
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