Key Moments
- EUR/USD failed to extend gains beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1829 and is now testing the 61.8% level at 1.1769, aligned with the 50-day SMA
- Momentum indicators show subdued buying interest, with RSI below 50 and stochastics trying to rebound from oversold territory
- Short-term bias remains neutral, with direction hinging on a break of the 50-day SMA on the downside or the short-term descending trendline on the upside
Post-Decision Rally Fades at Fibonacci Barrier
EUR/USD is drifting lower after its advance following the Supreme Court decision stalled beneath a significant technical barrier. The pair was unable to push through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January advance at 1.1829 and has since retreated.
The currency pair is now hovering around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1769. This level coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), forming an important area of confluence as price momentum softens in both directions.
Technical Indicators Signal Weak Upside Momentum
Momentum signals are reflecting this indecisive backdrop. The relative strength index (RSI) has flattened just below the neutral 50 threshold, indicating a lack of directional conviction. At the same time, the stochastic oscillator is attempting to move back above the 20-oversold level, hinting at only marginal and fragile upside momentum.
Tariff Developments and Dollar Reaction
The latest price swings are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened policy uncertainty. The US Supreme Court ruled on Friday that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were an overreach of his executive powers. Trump responded by slapping new global tariffs of initially 10%, and then 15%, using the Trade Act of 1974, sparking fresh uncertainty about the level of duties US importers will have to pay. Nevertheless, the immediate dollar selloff was brief and the euro appears to be on the backfoot again.
Key Support Zones and Downside Risk
Should EUR/USD close decisively below the 50-day SMA, attention is likely to shift to the next notable support area between 1.1670 and 1.1684. The lower end of this band at 1.1684 corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, while 1.1670 reflects a previously congested price zone.
Below that, the 200-day SMA is positioned just above the medium-term ascending trendline, together forming a potentially robust support region near 1.1650. A sustained move under this cluster would expose the January trough at 1.1576.
| Support / Resistance | Level | Technical Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate support | 1.1769 | 61.8% Fibonacci & 50-day SMA |
| Next support zone | 1.1670-1.1684 | Previous congestion & 78.6% Fibonacci |
| Major support | ~1.1650 | 200-day SMA & medium-term ascending trendline |
| Lower support | 1.1576 | January low |
| Near-term resistance | 1.1839 | 20-day SMA |
| Resistance | 1.1888 | 38.2% Fibonacci |
| Resistance | 1.1962 | 23.6% Fibonacci |
| Key long-term resistance | 1.2081 | January peak |
Recovery Levels and Upside Triggers
On any rebound, EUR/USD would first need to break above the short-term descending trendline that has been capping rallies. Clearing this barrier would bring the 20-day SMA at 1.1839 into focus as the next upside target.
If the pair can close above the 20-day SMA, subsequent resistance levels are seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January move at 1.1888, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1962.
Short-Term Neutral Bias, Longer-Term Bullish Thresholds
Overall, the pair is likely to preserve a neutral stance in the short term as long as price action remains confined between the 50-day SMA on the downside and the short-term descending trendline overhead.
From a broader perspective, EUR/USD would have to surpass the January high at 1.2081 to keep its wider bullish structure intact.
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