Cardano Slides as Bearish Flows Target Key Support

Key Moments

Cardano (ADA) falls 4% on Monday, marking a third straight day of losses and a break below a short-term support trendline.
Derivatives positioning turns sharply negative, with Open Interest at $424.84 million, a long-to-short ratio of 0.8619, and funding at -0.0138%.
Technical structure remains weak, with ADA trading below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs and key Fibonacci support levels coming into play near $0.2593 and $0.2496.

Macro Backdrop Pressures Cardano

Cardano (ADA) is under renewed selling pressure, dropping 4% on Monday at press time and extending a losing streak to three consecutive sessions. The downside move coincides with a risk-off tone across the broader cryptocurrency complex, as sentiment is weighed down by US President Donald Trump’s review of global tariffs and domestic frictions involving the US Supreme Court.

The weakness in ADA spot prices is mirrored in derivatives positioning, where traders are increasingly building bearish exposure. The technical picture remains negative, placing a critical support area in focus for market participants.

Derivatives Indicators Turn Decisively Bearish

Data from CoinGlass show that ADA futures Open Interest (OI) stands at $424.84 million, a decline of 4.25% over the past 24 hours. This contraction in OI signals that capital is leaving the market as participants de-risk.

Over the same period, total liquidations reached $1.86 million, with the bulk of the forced unwinds hitting long positions. That skew in liquidations has pushed the long-to-short ratio down to 0.8619, indicating that short positions now outnumber longs on a notional basis.

Funding dynamics also highlight the shift in sentiment. The funding rate has fallen to -0.0138%, suggesting that traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain short exposure. A funding rate below -0.010% is typically associated with intense selling activity, which can, in some cases, attract contrarian long positioning seeking to benefit from the funding incentive.

Metric	Latest Reading	Change / Context
Futures Open Interest (OI)	$424.84 million	Down 4.25% over 24 hours
Total Liquidations (24h)	$1.86 million	Primarily long positions
Long-to-short ratio	0.8619	More shorts than longs
Funding rate	-0.0138%	Below -0.010%, signaling strong selling pressure

Price Action: Testing Critical Fibonacci Levels

On the price chart, ADA is extending a 4% intraday decline on Monday after breaching a short-term ascending support trendline drawn from the February 11 and February 19 lows. This breakdown has reinforced the bearish tone.

Cardano currently trades below the descending 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2773 and the 200-period EMA at $0.3013. The fact that the 50-period EMA remains under the 200-period EMA underscores the prevailing downside bias.

The latest move lower is steering ADA toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.2593, calculated from the February 3 high at $0.3050 to the February 6 low at $0.2289 on the 4-hour chart. This level had been highlighted previously as a key marker.

A clear breakdown below $0.2593 would put the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2496 in focus. That area is described as a final buffer before a potential retest of the February 6 low at $0.2205.

Momentum Indicators Signal Intensifying Selling

On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 30, probing the threshold that typically defines oversold conditions. This reading reflects the strength of recent selling. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is falling further below the zero line, with negative histogram bars expanding, pointing to growing bearish momentum.

The combination of weakening price structure, deteriorating derivatives metrics, and negative momentum indicators paints a challenging near-term backdrop for ADA.

Potential Rebound Levels to Watch

If Cardano manages to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2695, the recovery could open the door for a move toward the 50-period and 200-period EMAs at $0.2773 and $0.3013, respectively. These moving averages are likely to serve as important resistance markers on any upside attempt.