Key Moments
- Airbus Group (EPA:AIR) stock dropped nearly 6% after the company signaled softer-than-expected commercial aircraft deliveries for 2026.
- Q4 earnings per share came in at 3.27 euros, a 7% year-on-year increase and well above Investing.com estimates of 2.34 euros.
- Management cited “significant” Pratt & Whitney engine shortages and trimmed its narrowbody production rate plan, while proposing a 2025 dividend of 3.20 euros per share.
Market Reaction to 2026 Delivery Outlook
Airbus Group (EPA:AIR) shares fell nearly 6% on Thursday after the manufacturer issued a 2026 commercial aircraft delivery outlook that came in below market expectations, overshadowing stronger-than-anticipated fourth-quarter profitability.
The company projected 2026 commercial aircraft deliveries of 870 units. This forecast came in weaker than Bloomberg estimates of about 896 planes, prompting a negative reaction in the stock despite a solid earnings performance.
Q4 Earnings Beat but Revenue Misses Expectations
For the three months ended December 31, Airbus reported earnings per share of 3.27 euros, representing a 7% increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier and coming in ahead of Investing.com estimates of 2.34 euros.
Quarterly revenue rose 5% to 25.98 billion euros but fell short of expectations of 27.5 billion euros. By the end of 2025, Airbus’ consolidated order intake value had risen to 123.3 billion euros, while its total order book value reached 619 billion euros.
| Metric | Reported | Expectation / Prior Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 EPS (euros) | 3.27 | 2.34 (Investing.com estimate) |
| Q4 Revenue (billion euros) | 25.98 | 27.5 (estimate) |
| Consolidated order intake value (billion euros, by end-2025) | 123.3 | Not stated |
| Order book value (billion euros) | 619 | Not stated |
| 2026 delivery guidance (units) | 870 | ~896 (Bloomberg estimate) |
| Proposed 2025 dividend (euros per share) | 3.20 | Not stated |
Engine Constraints and Production Plan Adjustment
Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury noted that Airbus continues to see robust global demand for its aircraft but is contending with “significant” shortages in Pratt & Whitney engines, which are produced by a unit of Rtx Corp (NYSE:RTX).
These engine supply constraints led Airbus to revise its narrowbody production ramp-up. The company now plans to reach a monthly production rate of between 70 and 75 narrowbody aircraft by the end of 2027, and then stabilize at 75 units per month after 2027. Previously, Airbus had targeted a production rate of 75 aircraft per month in 2027.
Analyst Reactions to Guidance
Commenting on the release, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert said Airbus’ fourth-quarter performance was “overshadowed by soft 2026 guide.”
“We believe investors will view the guide as below expectations, and could put pressure on the stock in the near term. However, we do believe the company’s guide for ~870 aircraft deliveries is appropriately conservative, as we have called out that we expected a sub-900 delivery guide,” he wrote.
Similarly, Jeferies analyst Chloe Lemarie said “FY25 results should allay some fears, notably with a solid FCF performance despite inventory buildup.”
“However, the 2026 guide is weaker than we expected,” she added.
Dividend Proposal
Alongside its earnings and guidance, Airbus proposed a 2025 dividend of 3.20 euros per share.
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