Silver Extends Rally Ahead of Key Jobs Data

Key Moments

Spot silver climbed to $85.53, gaining $4.74 or +5.87% ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release at 13:30 GMT.
Market expectations center on a 50,000 job gain, but outcomes near zero and sizable downward revisions remain possible.
A decisive move above $83.61 could open a path toward the $92.20-$92.87 area, with further resistance projected up to $99.66.

Pre-NFP Trade: Silver Rallies on Weak Jobs Bet

Spot silver is pushing higher shortly before the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT on Wednesday. The current price action indicates that market participants are positioning for a softer labor print, an outlook reinforced by declining Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar.

At 12:53 GMT, XAGUSD is quoted at $85.53, an intraday advance of $4.74 or +5.87%.

Jobs Outlook: Wide Range of Scenarios and Heavy Focus on Revisions

Traders are preparing for a subdued employment outcome. The prevailing consensus anticipates roughly 50,000 new jobs in January, yet outcomes closer to zero are being treated as plausible. In addition, annual benchmark revisions extending back to early 2024 could present a more negative assessment of the labor market.

There is also the potential for downward revisions to the data from December through October, as figures tied to last fall’s government shutdown continue to be processed and reassessed. These adjustments are seen as a potential catalyst for volatility in silver prices.

Forecasts among major institutions vary significantly. Goldman Sachs is positioned below the consensus with an estimate of 45,000, while Citigroup projects a much stronger gain of 135,000, notably above market expectations.

The revision component of the report is drawing particular attention. The weaker these revisions turn out to be, the stronger the argument could become for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June and potentially as early as March, both scenarios viewed as supportive for silver. Goldman estimates total revisions in a 750,000-900,000 range, while last month Fed Chairman Jerome Powell placed the figure closer to 600,000.

Rates and Dollar: Macro Backdrop Supports Silver

On Wednesday, 10-year Treasury yields are trading lower as investors price in the possibility of a softer jobs report and increase the odds of an earlier-than-previously-expected Fed easing move. The decline in yields is weighing on the U.S. Dollar and lifting appetite for dollar-denominated silver.

The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at a one-week low and is threatening to break below support at 96.476, adding to the positive environment for silver prices.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels in Focus

From a technical standpoint, silver is advancing and challenging a significant 50% retracement level at $83.61, after holding above the 50-day moving average at $79.14 for a third consecutive session. The 50-day moving average is described as the primary trend gauge.

A firm breakout above $83.61 could trigger an upside acceleration. The initial objective is seen in the $92.20-$92.87 band, where some profit-taking or new selling interest could emerge. Additional resistance is expected between $92.87 and $99.66, identified as the final major barrier before the all-time high at $121.67 and therefore a zone likely to face strong defense from sellers.

On the downside, a sustained move below the 50-day moving average would signal emerging weakness. Such a failure could quickly expose $74.73 and potentially invite a retest of $64.06. This would not necessarily imply an outright bearish trend shift but could indicate that the market requires additional time to establish a firmer support base.

Key Technical and Macro Levels

Metric / Level	Value	Comment
Spot silver price (XAGUSD)	$85.53	Up $4.74 or +5.87% at 12:53 GMT
U.S. NFP consensus	50,000	January jobs expectation
Goldman Sachs NFP estimate	45,000	Below consensus
Citigroup NFP estimate	135,000	Above consensus
Estimated NFP revisions (Goldman)	750,000-900,000	Compared with ~600,000 cited by Powell last month
U.S. Dollar Index key support	96.476	Under threat as index trades at one-week low
50-day moving average (silver)	$79.14	Primary trend indicator; near-term support
Key 50% level	$83.61	Break above could fuel rally
Initial upside target zone	$92.20-$92.87	First resistance band after breakout
Major resistance zone	$92.87-$99.66	Last major ceiling ahead of $121.67 all-time high
Lower support targets	$74.73 and $64.06	Potential levels if 50-day MA fails
All-time high	$121.67	Major long-term reference level

Looking Ahead

The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release and its associated revisions remain the central driver for silver in the near term. The interaction between labor data, Fed rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the U.S. Dollar will be critical in determining whether silver can sustain its current rally or retrace to rebuild technical support. More Information in our Economic Calendar.