Gold Above $5,000 as Dollar and Chart Signals Shape Trade

Key Moments

Gold Steadies Above $5,000 as Dollar Softens

Gold (XAU/USD) is posting slight gains on Tuesday, holding above the psychologically important $5,000 level while remaining constrained below resistance around $5,100. The broader precious metals complex is searching for clear direction, but ongoing softness in the US Dollar is helping to curb selling pressure.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, has weakened for a third straight session. The move follows disappointing US employment data released last week and remarks from White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who warned about the prospect of slower job growth in the coming months. Those developments have fueled expectations for potential Federal Reserve easing and are weighing on the US currency.

Macro Focus on US Data Releases

Market attention on Tuesday is centered on December US Retail Sales, which are anticipated to indicate a moderate cooling in consumer activity. Investors are also positioning ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Taken together, these data points are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the near-term trajectory of the US Dollar and, by extension, precious metals such as gold.

Technical Picture: Gartley Pattern in Play

XAU/USD is currently changing hands around the $5,050 area. On the 4-hour chart, the upward-sloping 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is acting as dynamic support, currently located near $4,970.

Momentum indicators are showing a mixed but constructive tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has eased back from recent highs, signaling that bullish momentum is cooling but not reversing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57, reflecting a neutral-to-bullish stance.

From a pattern perspective, the immediate structure is still tilted to the upside. The combination of price action and indicators supports the view that gold is progressing through the C-D leg of a potential Gartley formation. This configuration suggests scope for an advance beyond the February 4 peak in the $5,100 region, targeting the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late January decline, around $5,340.

Key Technical Levels

On the downside, a move below the 100-period SMA near $4,970 would shift attention toward the February 6 trough at $4,655. A decisive break under that low would negate the prevailing bullish interpretation of the chart.