Key Moments
- Bunge Global issued a 2026 adjusted EPS outlook of $7.50 to $8.00, below Wall Street’s $8.71 estimate.
- The company posted its weakest fourth quarter and lowest full-year adjusted profit since 2019, with 2025 adjusted EPS at $7.57 versus $9.19 a year earlier.
- Shares fell 5% in premarket trading, despite having climbed more than 30% since the start of the year.
Profit Outlook Misses Expectations
Bunge Global on Wednesday released earnings guidance for 2026 that trailed analysts’ forecasts, highlighting continued pressure from commodity market volatility and compressed margins that had already weighed on last year’s performance for the world’s largest oilseed processor.
The Missouri-headquartered group projected 2026 adjusted earnings per share in a range of $7.50 to $8.00, missing Wall Street’s consensus expectation of $8.71. Investors reacted negatively, with the stock down 5% in premarket trading, even after gaining more than 30% since the beginning of the year.
Weakest Results Since 2019
Bunge reported that the latest quarter and full year marked its softest results since 2019 on an adjusted basis. For the quarter ended December 31, adjusted EPS came in at $1.99, compared with $2.13 in the same period a year earlier. The figure nevertheless exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.81, based on data compiled by LSEG.
For the full year 2025, adjusted earnings declined to $7.57 per share from $9.19 in the prior year.
| Period | Metric | Result | Prior Year | Consensus (LSEG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 (ended Dec 31) | Adjusted EPS | $1.99 | $2.13 | $1.81 |
| Full-year 2025 | Adjusted EPS | $7.57 | $9.19 | N/A |
| Full-year 2026 (forecast) | Adjusted EPS | $7.50 – $8.00 | N/A | $8.71 |
Macroeconomic and Sector Headwinds
The company continues to face a challenging backdrop. A global surplus of grains has depressed crop prices, reduced processing opportunities, and squeezed profitability across the agribusiness industry, pressuring Bunge alongside peers such as ADM and Cargill.
Trade tensions linked to U.S. President Trump’s tariff actions and lingering uncertainty surrounding biofuels policy have further undermined earnings, as customers have become more cautious in committing to longer-dated contracts amid market volatility.
Impact of Viterra Merger and Policy Delays
Bunge’s integration with Viterra, completed in mid-2025, expanded its grain handling and processing footprint, lifting volumes and revenue. However, the benefits have been tempered by trade disruptions and delays in finalizing biofuels regulations, which have particularly constrained profitability in the United States.
Commenting on the operating environment, Bunge CEO Greg Heckman said “forward visibility remains limited amid dynamic market conditions.”
Biofuels Rules and Market Expectations
The policy landscape for biofuels remains a critical factor. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department issued proposed rules that outline how biofuel producers can qualify for larger tax incentives for green fuel production. The proposals would encourage the use of feedstocks sourced from North American oilseed crops such as soy and canola, and introduce adjustments to the methodology used to calculate the carbon intensity of those feedstocks.
Market participants are still waiting for final regulations on biofuel blending quotas, which are anticipated next month. Current expectations are that the final framework will keep quotas near initial plans that raised volumes, while eliminating a proposed measure that would have imposed penalties on imports of renewable fuels and feedstocks.
Competitive Landscape: ADM Guidance
The broader sector impact of biofuel policy delays is also evident among competitors. Rival grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland, which has a more U.S.-focused footprint, on Tuesday guided for 2026 adjusted earnings below analyst expectations, citing the postponement of U.S. biofuel policy as a key factor.
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