Key Moments
- John Blank of Zacks Investment Research projects bitcoin could fall to $40,000, implying a 49% drop from recent levels.
- Blank notes that prior bitcoin “winters” have usually lasted 12 to 18 months. This suggests the current downturn may continue for several more months.
- Meanwhile, concerns about potential selling by large corporate holders and shrinking liquidity are cited as key risks that could accelerate the decline.
Bear Market Deepens for Bitcoin
The ongoing slump in bitcoin shows few signs of easing. In fact, one market strategist believes the retreat could extend significantly from current levels.
John Blank, chief strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said on CNBC Monday that bitcoin could fall to $40,000 if the downturn continues. Based on his calculations, that would mean an additional 49% downside.
“From $76,000 down from the $125,000 peak, we could reach $40,000,” Blank explained. His target comes from analyzing bitcoin’s recent peaks and troughs.
Bitcoin has already endured a challenging stretch. It entered bear market territory in November as investors moved into risk-off mode, triggering what was described as the largest liquidation event in its history. The price briefly fell below $75,000 on Monday, marking the lowest level since Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.
Currently, bitcoin trades 37% below last year’s high near $126,000.
Summary of Key Bitcoin Price Levels
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recent peak referenced by Blank | $125,000 |
| Last year’s peak level | around $126,000 |
| Recent trading level referenced by Blank | $76,000 |
| Recent intraday low | briefly below $75,000 |
| Blank’s downside target | $40,000 |
| Implied additional downside from $76,000 | 49% |
| Drawdown from last year’s peak | 37% |
1. Historical Length of Crypto Winters
Blank emphasized that prior bitcoin downturns have tended to last over a year. Therefore, the current cycle may still be in its early phase.
“Generally, a bitcoin winter lasts 12 to 18 months,” he said. “These are well-understood technical patterns.” Based on that, he suggested bitcoin could reach $40,000 within six to eight months if the sell-off continues.
Meanwhile, risk aversion has intensified, adding momentum to the decline. Bitcoin closed January with its fourth consecutive monthly loss, marking the longest losing streak in about seven years.
2. Risk of Forced Selling by Large Corporate Holders
Blank also highlighted risks tied to Michael Saylor’s Strategy, known as the world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder. Analysts are watching the company closely, fearing it may need to reduce holdings if conditions worsen.
In late 2025, Phong Le, CEO of the bitcoin treasury company, said Strategy might liquidate some bitcoin as a “last resort” if its mNAV—measuring stock price relative to bitcoin holdings—falls below 1. Currently, the ratio is around 1.1.
Strategy has accumulated bitcoin aggressively, including purchases during the current bear market. Its website reports holdings of 713,502 bitcoin, roughly 3% of total supply.
Blank framed the risk around forced selling. “When does forced selling happen to bring us to $40,000?” he asked. “We could reach it quickly or more likely over six to eight months.”
Selected Strategy Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| mNAV threshold referenced by CEO | 1 |
| Current mNAV | around 1.1 |
| Bitcoin holdings reported by Strategy | 713,502 |
| Share of total bitcoin supply | around 3% |
3. Shrinking Liquidity and Weakening Demand
Another concern is the market structure and the role of demand in sustaining bitcoin prices.
Blank described bitcoin as trading in an “inelastic” market, where supply reacts slowly to price changes. Therefore, ongoing demand is crucial to support the token.
“This inelastic market amplifies movements,” he said. “When liquidity drops, price swings multiply faster and pull the market down.”
He noted that declining liquidity has increased recent volatility. Bitcoin’s market depth—tracking how easily the market absorbs large orders—is down about 30% from pre-peak levels in October, according to Kaiko data cited by Bloomberg.
Outlook for the Months Ahead
Combining these factors—a long historical winter, potential forced selling, and thinner liquidity—Blank said bitcoin could still fall significantly.
Whether the drop to $40,000 is abrupt or gradual, he believes the crypto winter could last another six to eight months if current trends continue.
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