Key Moments
- UBS recommends a long EURCHF position from around 0.92 with a target of 0.945 and a stop-loss at 0.91.
- Improving European macro data and Germany’s fiscal stimulus are cited as key supports for the euro.
- UBS expects reduced safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc as global growth becomes more procyclical.
UBS Calls for Long EURCHF Position
Investing.com – UBS has turned more constructive on the EURCHF currency pair, recommending investors go long with a price objective of 0.945 from current levels near 0.92, according to a research note released Tuesday.
The bank pairs this upside target with a suggested stop-loss at 0.91, framing the trade with clearly defined risk parameters.
Trade Parameters at a Glance
| Currency Pair | Suggested Position | Entry Level (approx.) | Target | Stop-Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURCHF | Long | 0.92 | 0.945 | 0.91 |
European Macro Backdrop and Policy Context
UBS attributes its constructive stance on EURCHF primarily to an improving macroeconomic environment in Europe. The bank points to Germany’s fiscal stimulus, which it says is gradually feeding through into stronger growth, reflected in firmer PMI readings and a more robust ifo Index.
Against this backdrop, UBS expects the European Central Bank to remain “comfortable” with interest rates staying on hold, given the signs of regional economic improvement.
Shifts in Global Growth and Safe-Haven Dynamics
The report notes that global growth conditions are becoming more procyclical and are recovering following recent tariff shocks. In UBS’s view, this environment should curb “safe-haven” flows into the Swiss franc, even as geopolitical disruptions persist.
The bank also underscores that the Swiss National Bank has reiterated its support for the current policy stance, maintaining a bias against a sustained strengthening of the franc.
Technical Profile and Historical Behavior of EURCHF
UBS strategists Constantin Bolz and Clémence Dumoncel highlight that EURCHF has tested the 0.92 level twice before rebounding, and they anticipate a similar pattern unfolding in the weeks ahead.
The report adds that the currency pair has repeatedly dipped into the low 0.92 area over the last 1.5 years, only to recover swiftly each time. This historically resilient behavior around those levels is presented as an additional argument in favor of the long trade.
Geopolitical Scenario and Longer-Term Support
The note identifies geopolitical developments as another potential driver for EURCHF. It states that a possible ceasefire in Ukraine – described as increasingly likely toward the end of 2025 – could provide further support for a stronger euro against the Swiss franc.
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