Key Moments
- Brent March futures traded at $65.84 per barrel and WTI at $61.03, both down 0.1% after Friday’s rally.
- Geopolitical risk premiums stayed elevated amid U.S. military moves toward the Middle East and Iran tensions.
- Kazakhstan’s main crude export route returned to full capacity, while markets monitored 2026 surplus risks and the Fed meeting.
Prices Steady After Friday’s Surge
Oil futures traded mostly flat on Monday. Traders consolidated gains from the prior session and weighed two main forces: geopolitical uncertainty and supply risks.
As of 22:18 ET (03:18 GMT), Brent March futures slipped 0.1% to $65.84 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. WTI futures eased 0.1% to $61.03.
Both contracts rose more than 2% on Friday. The move followed a rise in geopolitical risk premiums, which supported prices into the new week.
| Contract | Move | Price | Time reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent futures (March) | -0.1% | $65.84 per barrel | 22:18 ET (03:18 GMT) |
| WTI crude futures | -0.1% | $61.03 per barrel | 22:18 ET (03:18 GMT) |
Geopolitical Tensions Keep Risk Premiums High
Risk sentiment in energy markets stayed fragile after the U.S. signaled a military buildup. Traders worried that conflict could disrupt shipments from major producers.
President Trump said an “armada” of U.S. naval forces, including an aircraft carrier group, was heading toward the Middle East. As a result, markets feared a clash with Iran could hit oil supply.
In addition, Trump’s comments on Greenland also unsettled financial markets. Overall, geopolitics continued to support oil prices.
Supply Update: Kazakhstan Exports Return
On the supply side, some upward pressure eased after an export route returned to service. Kazakhstan’s main crude export channel resumed full loading capacity.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said its Black Sea terminal resumed operations after repairs at a mooring point. As a result, exports moved back to normal volumes.
2026 Surplus Risks and the Fed Meeting
Despite near-term support, traders remained cautious about the longer-term outlook. They are watching for a possible global supply surplus in 2026.
If production growth outpaces demand, oversupply could pressure prices. This risk is especially relevant as non-OPEC output remains resilient.
Meanwhile, the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Markets expect rates to stay unchanged.
However, investors will scrutinize Fed guidance for hints about rate cuts later this year. Any change in expectations could affect oil demand by influencing growth and the U.S. dollar.
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