Colder Weather and Iran Tensions Propel European Gas Benchmark Higher

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: January 13, 2026

Key Moments

European Natural Gas benchmark TTF advanced 6.6% and moved back above €30/MWh.
Colder conditions across much of Europe increased heating-related demand for Natural Gas.
Unrest in Iran raised market concerns over LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf and Iranian Gas flows to Turkey.

Market Reaction to Weather and Geopolitical Risks

European Natural Gas prices climbed sharply as traders reacted to a combination of rising seasonal demand and mounting geopolitical risks. The TTF benchmark advanced 6.6%, lifting prices back above €30/MWh, according to ING commodity strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson.

The move reflected a tightening outlook for the regional Gas balance as colder temperatures across key European markets supported higher consumption for heating.

European natural gas prices jump to the highest since November 🇪🇺📈
👉 This is due to a combination of cold weather, falling inventories & geopolitical risk
🚢 Still, a lot of new LNG supply comes online this year. It's only a matter of time before prices resume declines pic.twitter.com/nirlTUKq1w
— Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) January 12, 2026

Analyst Commentary on Price Drivers

ING’s commodity experts highlighted how the convergence of weather-related demand and Iranian unrest has intensified supply concerns in the European Gas market.

“European Natural Gas prices surged yesterday, with TTF settling 6.6% higher, returning to above EUR30/MWh. Colder weather across large parts of Europe increases heating demand, while unrest in Iran is a concern for Gas markets.”

Focus on LNG and Pipeline Supply Risks

The situation in Iran has raised questions about the security of both seaborne and pipeline Gas supplies that are relevant for Europe. Manthey and Patterson pointed to two key areas of potential disruption:

“First, there are potential risks to LNG flows from the Persian Gulf. Second, there’s the potential for disruptions to Iranian Gas flows to Turkey. Given the large TTF fund short, it wouldn’t take much to move the market as funds run in to cover shorts.”