Key Moments
- Brent crude traded at $63.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $59.16 by 0433 GMT.
- Meanwhile, unrest in Iran raised concerns over possible disruptions to 1.9 million barrels per day of exports.
- However, expectations of Venezuelan crude returning and rising oversupply fears capped further gains.
Oil Prices Edge Up Amid Conflicting Supply Signals
Oil futures edged higher on Monday. Traders weighed rising supply risks from Iran against fresh expectations of Venezuelan exports. At the same time, concerns about ample supply limited upside momentum.
| Contract | Price | Change | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | $63.39 per barrel | +$0.05 | 0433 |
| U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) | $59.16 per barrel | +$0.04 | 0433 |
By 0433 GMT, Brent crude rose 5 cents to $63.39 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 4 cents to $59.16.
Both benchmarks climbed more than 3% last week. This marked their strongest weekly performance since October. The gains followed Iran’s sharp response to its largest protests since 2022.
Heightened Iran Risk and Geopolitical Premium
In recent days, a geopolitical premium has entered crude prices. Even so, some analysts argue the market still underprices escalation risks tied to Iran. In particular, traders remain cautious about disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, said traders continue to discount the threat of a wider conflict around Iran. Such a conflict could disrupt shipments through the key chokepoint.
“The market wants to see real supply disruption before reacting in a meaningful way,” Kavonic said.
Meanwhile, unrest in Iran has turned deadly. A rights group reported more than 500 deaths on Sunday.
In addition, calls have emerged for oil workers to halt operations during the protests. ANZ analysts, led by Daniel Hynes, highlighted this risk in a note.
As a result, at least 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports face potential disruption, the analysts said.
U.S. Response and Policy Deliberations on Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of a response if force is used against protesters in Iran. On Sunday, a U.S. official said Trump will meet senior advisers on Tuesday. The meeting will focus on possible policy options.
Venezuelan Crude Expected to Re-enter Market
At the same time, traders are preparing for additional supply from Venezuela. The country is expected to restart oil exports following the removal of President Nicolas Maduro. Last week, Trump said Caracas may hand over up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.
As a result, oil companies have stepped up activity. They are securing tankers and managing logistics to move crude from aging ports. Four sources familiar with the process confirmed the efforts.
Trafigura told the White House on Friday that its first vessel should load within the next week.
Range-bound Prices and Oversupply Concerns
Despite geopolitical risks, analysts see limited upside for crude prices. Without stronger demand or a lasting outage, prices may remain range bound.
Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, echoed that view. She said oil futures now price in a potential oversupply.
Looking ahead, she added that these concerns grow stronger as the market approaches 2026.
Russian Supply Also Under Scrutiny
Finally, investors continue to watch Russian supply risks. Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure remain a concern. In addition, the threat of tighter U.S. sanctions adds further uncertainty.
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