Key Moments
- Bank of America raised its 2026 platinum price forecast to $2,450 an ounce and its palladium forecast to $1,725 an ounce after both metals exceeded earlier projections.
- The bank continues to expect platinum to outperform palladium, supported by ongoing market deficits and U.S. tariff and inventory dynamics.
- Meanwhile, stronger Chinese jewelry demand, record gold prices, and new physically backed PGM contracts in Guangzhou have added further price support.
Revised 2026 Price Targets for Platinum and Palladium
Bank of America has sharply raised its 2026 outlook for platinum and palladium. This move follows a rally that pushed both metals above the bank’s previous expectations.
The bank now forecasts average platinum prices of $2,450 an ounce in 2026. That compares with an earlier estimate of $1,825 an ounce. At the same time, its average palladium forecast has increased to $1,725 an ounce from $1,525.
Analyst Danica Averion said that platinum and palladium prices continued to rise this year. Spot prices recently reached $2,446 an ounce for platinum and $1,826 an ounce for palladium. As a result, both metals have now surpassed the bank’s prior forecasts.
| Metal | Previous 2026 Forecast (USD/oz) | New 2026 Forecast (USD/oz) | Recent Spot Price (USD/oz) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum | $1,825 | $2,450 | $2,446 |
| Palladium | $1,525 | $1,725 | $1,826 |
Platinum Seen Leading Palladium Amid Structural Deficits
Despite higher forecasts for both metals, Bank of America continues to favor platinum. The bank expects platinum to outperform palladium due to persistent market deficits.
According to the bank, these structural shortages should continue to support platinum prices over the medium term. In contrast, palladium faces a more mixed supply and demand outlook.
U.S. Tariffs, Inventories, and Russian Supply Risks
U.S. trade policy and inventory trends are also shaping the platinum group metals market. Averion noted that the United States has become a major destination for PGM inventories.
Meanwhile, tariffs are having a growing impact across metal markets. CME inventories have risen, and exchange-for-physical spreads have spiked, especially in palladium.
Investors are closely watching the risk of new U.S. duties on Russian supply. According to the Department of Commerce, the dumping margin for unwrought Russian palladium was estimated at about 828%. As a result, Bank of America warned that potential tariffs could push domestic prices even higher.
Chinese Demand, Jewelry Recovery, and Substitution Effects
China has also played an important role in supporting prices. Earlier in 2025, a recovery in the Chinese jewelry sector drew additional platinum and palladium into the country.
At the same time, record gold prices have increased the likelihood of substitution. If consumers shift toward platinum-based jewelry, the platinum market deficit could widen further.
Support From New Physically Backed Contracts in Guangzhou
Additional support has come from China’s derivatives markets. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange recently launched new physically backed platinum and palladium futures contracts.
According to Averion, these contracts have provided further price support. Physical sourcing, in particular, was described as a key driver behind December’s rally.
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