Key Moments
- S&P Global expects global copper demand to reach 42 million metric tons per year by 2040, up from 28 million in 2025.
- However, the consultancy warns that more than 10 million metric tons of annual demand could go unmet without more mining and recycling.
- In addition, artificial intelligence, defense, and robotics are set to drive copper use beyond electric vehicles and household appliances.
Expanding Uses of Copper in a More Electrified World
Artificial intelligence and defense spending are set to lift global copper demand by 50% by 2040. However, supply may fall well short, according to a new report from S&P Global.
Copper plays a vital role in construction, transport, and electronics. It conducts electricity efficiently, resists corrosion, and is easy to shape.
Over the past decade, electric vehicles have driven much of the growth in copper use. Now, S&P Global sees rising demand from AI, defense, and robotics. At the same time, household demand for appliances remains strong.
Long-Term Demand Outlook and Supply Gap
S&P Global forecasts copper demand will rise to 42 million metric tons per year by 2040. That compares with 28 million metric tons in 2025.
Without new supply, nearly one-quarter of expected demand may go unmet.
| Year | Projected Global Copper Demand (million metric tons/year) |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 28 |
| 2040 | 42 |
As a result, S&P Global estimates annual supply shortfalls could exceed 10 million metric tons without expanded mining and recycling.
“The core driver is global electrification, and copper is central to that shift,” said Dan Yergin, S&P Global’s vice chairman.
AI, Data Centers, and Defense Drive Demand
AI infrastructure is emerging as a major source of new copper demand. For example, more than 100 data center projects launched last year, with a combined value near $61 billion.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are also lifting demand. S&P Global points to the war in Ukraine and higher defense budgets in countries such as Japan and Germany.
“Copper demand in defense is largely inelastic,” said Carlos Pascual, an S&P vice president and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
Global Supply Landscape and Trade Factors
Copper appears in almost every electronic device. As a result, its supply chain remains critical across industries.
Chile and Peru lead global copper production. China, meanwhile, stands as the world’s largest copper smelter.
The United States imports about half of its copper needs each year. It has also imposed tariffs on some copper products.
Notably, S&P Global’s projections do not include potential supply from deep-sea mining.
Methodology Shift from Net-Zero Scenarios
In 2022, S&P Global modeled copper demand under a net-zero emissions scenario for 2050.
By contrast, the new report uses a base-case approach. It assumes copper demand will rise regardless of future climate policy outcomes.
“The politics around the energy transition have changed significantly,” Yergin said.
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