Key Moments
- Yardeni Research links the strong precious metals rally to macro and policy concerns, rather than stronger global growth.
- The firm raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to $6,000 per ounce after spot prices climbed above $4,500.
- Yardeni maintains a longer-term view that gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.
Precious Metals Rally Driven by Policy Concerns
Yardeni Research upgraded its outlook for gold. The firm says the sharp rise in precious metals is driven mainly by macroeconomic and policy worries, not by a global economic rebound.
Gold prices are up about 69% year on year. Silver, platinum, and palladium have increased even more. Yardeni notes that industrial metals linked to manufacturing have seen smaller gains. This suggests the rally is not being driven by industrial demand.
Gold Above $2,000 and Central Bank Influence
Gold surged past $2,000 per ounce in early 2024. At that time, Yardeni became constructive on the metal. Central bank purchases increased after Russia’s international reserves were frozen following the invasion of Ukraine.
Central banks mainly buy gold, not silver, platinum, or palladium. Yet other precious metals also hit record highs. Yardeni interprets this as a sign that policy and macro concerns are fueling the rally.
Policy Signals Behind the Rally
Yardeni sees current precious metals prices as a warning. Investors appear uneasy about what the firm calls an “excessively stimulative combination of U.S. monetary and fiscal policies” in 2026.
On the monetary side, the Federal Reserve plans to continue buying roughly $40 billion per month in Treasury bills through April, even if interest rate cuts stop early in 2026. This follows a press release from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
On the fiscal side, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned potential tax refunds of $1,000–$2,000 per household in 2026, as well as possible tariff dividend checks. Yardeni warns these measures could expand the federal deficit and push bond yields higher.
Updated Price Targets and Long-Term Outlook
In this context, Yardeni raised its year-end 2026 gold target to $6,000 per ounce, up from $5,000 previously. Its prior target for 2025 was $4,000.
| Gold Price Projections (Yardeni Research) | Target Level |
|---|---|
| Year-end 2025 target | $4,000 per ounce |
| Prior year-end 2026 target | $5,000 per ounce |
| Revised year-end 2026 target | $6,000 per ounce |
| Long-term view (end of decade) | $10,000 per ounce |
Yardeni also emphasizes the long-term potential for gold to reach $10,000 by decade’s end. While gold and the S&P 500 often move inversely in the short term, both have generally risen over longer periods, showing similar long-run trends.
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