Dogecoin Slides as Big Holders Trim Positions and Bearish Bets Mount

Key Moments

Investor Flows Signal Weakening Demand

Dogecoin (DOGE) traded lower on Thursday after dropping 4% on Wednesday, as selling pressure continued to build. On-chain indicators point to ongoing distribution by large holders and a softening in overall profitability across the network.

Data from Santiment shows that addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE now control 34.77 billion tokens, down from 36.14 billion on December 1. This group sold more than 1 billion DOGE on December 10 and has kept balances largely unchanged since then.

At the same time, the share of the total DOGE supply in profit has declined to 50.70%, compared with a peak of 53.95% on December 3. This erosion in profitable supply highlights a gradual cooling in demand for the token.

Derivatives Market Turns More Bearish

In the derivatives market, Dogecoin has been losing momentum as traders position around upcoming macro events, including the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday.

According to CoinGlass, the share of short positions in DOGE derivatives has risen to 53.91%, up from 52.59% on Wednesday. This increase in bearish exposure points to growing sell-side dominance among traders and coincides with the liquidation of more than $5 million in DOGE long positions over the past 24 hours.

Technical Picture: Eyes on $0.1231 and $0.1000

On the technical front, Dogecoin has fallen more than 6% so far this week and is moving toward the S1 Pivot Point at $0.1231. The token has recorded its lowest daily close since October 17, 2024, during what has become the third consecutive losing week.

A decisive move below $0.1231 would open the door for a potential decline toward the $0.1000 psychological support level.

Momentum indicators reinforce the downside bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has extended its move lower after crossing beneath its signal line on Monday, underscoring growing negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33 and is sloping downward toward the oversold threshold, pointing to sustained bearish pressure.

Key Levels to Watch

While the immediate focus is on whether DOGE can hold above the S1 Pivot Point at $0.1231, there is also a clear resistance marker to the upside. If the price stabilizes and rebounds from around $0.1231, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.1556 could act as a cap on any recovery attempt.

Taken together, on-chain, derivatives, and technical metrics are aligned to show weakening demand and increasing bearish conviction around Dogecoin, with the $0.1231 and $0.1000 levels emerging as critical downside reference points for market participants.