Key Moments
- The Indian Rupee fell to a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar. This happened even though the USD weakened broadly after the Fed decision.
- US-India trade discussions are under way in New Delhi. Officials aim to secure a basic framework agreement before year-end.
- India’s inflation data arrives tomorrow. It may act as another catalyst for USD/INR movement.
Fundamental Overview
The U.S. dollar softened against major peers after the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed signaled that any additional rate cuts will require stronger justification. However, Chair Powell sounded more dovish. He downplayed inflation concerns and shifted the focus toward labor market conditions. As a result, the USD drifted lower.
Even with this softer backdrop, the Indian Rupee dropped to fresh record lows against the dollar. Structural challenges continue to weigh on the currency. Therefore, the broader USD/INR uptrend remains intact.
Meanwhile, US-India trade negotiations are taking place in New Delhi. Although a full trade deal still appears far off, India hopes to secure a basic framework agreement before year-end. Such progress could offer short-term support to the Rupee. Conversely, any negative headlines may quickly pressure the currency again.
₹ hits yet another record low against $
The decline catches money market by surprise as the dollar index is also weakening. Uncertainty over a trade deal between India-USA also weighs on sentiment.@latha_venkatesh decodes #US #Trade #India #Hedging pic.twitter.com/ikwhwLu1ly
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) December 11, 2025
USD/INR Technical Picture – Daily Chart
USD/INR continues to trade inside an ascending channel on the daily timeframe. Spot prices are moving toward the upper boundary near the 91.00 region. If the pair reaches this area, sellers may step in with clearly defined risk just above the channel top. They will likely target a pullback toward the lower boundary.
Buyers, however, will watch for a clean breakout above the channel. A decisive move higher would reinforce the bullish bias and open the door to new record highs.
| Timeframe | Key Levels | Bias | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | Upper channel near 91.00 | Uptrend | Watching for a breakout or rejection |
| 4-hour | Support at 89.70; upside toward 91.00 | Bullish with pullbacks | Reaction to the recent high and 89.70 support |
| 1-hour | Former resistance at 90.05; support at 89.70 | Short-term bullish momentum | Dip-buying interest near 90.05 and 89.70 |
USD/INR Technical Analysis – 4-Hour View
On the 4-hour chart, USD/INR pushed into a new record high before easing slightly. This zone may attract sellers who can manage risk just above the latest peak. They will likely aim for a corrective move toward 89.70.
Buyers, on the other hand, want to see a breakout above the recent high. A move above that level could open the path toward the 91.00 region.
USD/INR Technical Analysis – 1-Hour View
The 1-hour chart shows that a break through minor resistance around 90.05 accelerated bullish momentum. More buyers entered the market and targeted fresh highs. If the pair pulls back, dip buyers may step in around 90.05 and 89.70.
Sellers will watch for a downside break. Such a move could signal that a deeper pullback is developing.
Upcoming Catalysts
India’s inflation data is due tomorrow. It could shift expectations for domestic policy and influence Rupee sentiment. In parallel, US-India trade talks continue as part of a two-day meeting. Any developments from the discussions may add short-term volatility to USD/INR.
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