Key Moments
- TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating on Boeing with a $240 price target. The firm named the stock one of its Best Ideas for 2026.
- The firm projects Boeing’s free cash flow rising from $2.8 billion in 2026 to $7.7 billion in 2027 and $11.7 billion in 2028. These figures exclude Spirit AeroSystems after its December 8 closing.
- Key catalysts include higher production rates for the 737 and 787. They also include certification milestones for the 777X and 737-7/10, along with margin improvement at Boeing Defense.
Analyst Elevates Boeing to Best Ideas List
Boeing is being positioned as a top pick for 2026 by TD Cowen. The firm highlighted improving operational performance and rising production. It also pointed to a multi-year ramp in free cash flow that it believes remains underappreciated by the market.
In a research note published Wednesday, analyst Gautam Khanna reaffirmed a Buy rating on Boeing and maintained a $240 price objective. He also designated the company as one of the firm’s Best Ideas for 2026.
Furthermore, TD Cowen said it prefers Boeing because of its “ramping plane production cadence, FCF growth over the next 3+ years, associated de-leverage, & mixed investor sentiment that can improve.”
Structural Demand Supports Long-Cycle Aerospace Growth
Khanna described aerospace original equipment as “a rare, long-cycle, visible growth, industrial vertical.” He argued that the segment is supported by several years of undersupply.
As demand gradually shifts from aftermarket activity to new aircraft purchases, TD Cowen expects Boeing to benefit. This transition, the firm said, should position Boeing well for continued growth.
Execution Improving on Core Programs
TD Cowen said Boeing’s operational performance “has turned the corner.” The firm pointed specifically to better execution in the 737 and 787 programs. Because of these improvements, TD Cowen believes these programs now provide an “extended runway” for the company.
Free-Cash-Flow Outlook Through 2028
The brokerage offered a detailed free-cash-flow outlook for Boeing over the next several years. These figures exclude Spirit AeroSystems following its December 8 closing.
| Year | Projected Free Cash Flow (billions) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.8 | Excludes Spirit AeroSystems |
| 2027 | $7.7 | Excludes Spirit AeroSystems |
| 2028 | $11.7 | Excludes Spirit AeroSystems |
Khanna argued that the market may not fully appreciate the “direction & magnitude of BA’s FCF growth potential.” He said the path to more than $11.5 billion in free cash flow by 2028 is “believable,” especially given CEO Kelly Ortberg’s “operational reset.”
Defense Charges and Margin Expansion
TD Cowen also addressed Boeing’s defense operations. The firm said most cash outflows related to Boeing Defense’s $3 billion in charges “should end in C26.”
Additionally, it noted that deferred production balances point to meaningfully higher free-cash-flow margins on the 787 and 737 by 2027.
Catalysts to Watch
TD Cowen identified several upcoming drivers for Boeing’s investment outlook. These include:
- Rate increases on the 737 and 787 production lines
- Certification milestones for the 777X and 737-7/10
- Ongoing margin improvement at Boeing Defense
Together, these factors suggest a strengthening setup for Boeing. TD Cowen believes that improving execution, rising production, and a growing free-cash-flow profile support its positive stance on the stock as the company moves toward 2026 and beyond.
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