Analysts See Home Depot Poised for Market Share Gains Despite Macro Hurdles

Key Moments

Investor Day Reinforces 2025 Outlook

Investing.com — After The Home Depot’s (NYSE:HD) Investor Day in New York, Truist analysts concluded that the retailer remains “positioned for continued share gains,” even as they acknowledged that broader macroeconomic uncertainty makes it difficult to pinpoint when an upcycle might begin.

At the December 9 meeting, Home Depot’s management reaffirmed its 2025 guidance. The company is targeting annual sales growth of about 3%, “slightly positive” comparable sales, and earnings per share of roughly $14.50. These figures closely match Truist’s prior expectations.

2026 Projections and Truist Model Revisions

Looking ahead to 2026, Home Depot outlined a view of a flat home-improvement market, with comparable sales expected to range from flat to an increase of 2%. The company is projecting an adjusted EBIT margin between 12.8% and 13.0% and EPS growth between flat and 4%.

In response, Truist revised its own forecasts. The firm now anticipates comparable sales growth of 1.6%, down from its previous estimate of 2.0%. Truist’s 2026 EPS forecast for Home Depot now stands at approximately $15.15.

Potential Multi-Year Upside in a Recovery

Despite the tempered near-term assumptions, Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli remains constructive on Home Depot’s longer-term trajectory. He believes that once comparable sales begin to inflect higher, the company could enter a multi-year period of expansion.

Under a recovery scenario characterized by approximately 4.5% comparable sales growth and total sales growth near 5.5%, Truist sees potential for mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth. The firm also argued that Home Depot might possess “more earnings leverage than what the company has outlined.”

Truist reiterated its Buy rating on Home Depot, highlighting its appeal for investors with a long-term horizon. The firm slightly lowered its 12-month price target to $375 from $379.

“We remain highly confident that home improvement trends will accelerate meaningfully, but calling the timing for the inflection has proven to be very difficult and more recent economic uncertainties have not helped matters (we slightly lowered our CY26 ests to reflect this),” wrote Ciccarelli. “However, we suspect that when comps do inflect, we could see a multi-year upcycle.”

Bernstein Stays Cautious on Macro, Prefers LOW

Other analysts took a more cautious stance on the macro environment. Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma characterized the Investor Day as providing a strategic roadmap, but without clear signs of a macro recovery.

Ma noted, “no macro rebound in sight yet,” and pointed to key outstanding questions around the timing of any macro inflection and the execution of Home Depot’s Complex Pro strategy heading into 2026.

“Going into 2026, we expect the timing of a potential macro inflection point and progress in the Complex Pro strategy to remain key points of debate for HD,” stated Ma.

In the nearer term, Bernstein continues to favor Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) over Home Depot. Ma wrote, “In the near term, we continue to prefer LOW over HD given its cheaper valuation, greater cost savings potential, and the cyclicality of the business, which sets it up well for the eventual rebound in demand.”