Standard Chartered Scales Back Bitcoin Outlook but Keeps Long-Term Bullish View

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Bank Cuts Near-Term Targets After Market Pullback

Standard Chartered has lowered its Bitcoin price outlook for the next several years. The bank says the recent market pullback and a change in expected demand from major buyer groups prompted the revision. As a result, it now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, which is half of its previous $300,000 estimate.

Drawdown Seen as Normal, Not a New “Crypto Winter”

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, argues that the latest decline remains in line with past corrections. He notes that the 36% drop from the October peak mirrors earlier drawdowns that occurred after U.S. spot ETFs entered the market. Therefore, he does not believe the pullback signals the start of another “crypto winter.”

Corporate Treasury Demand Written Out of the Model

Kendrick also explains that the bank adjusted the mix of expected demand. He says Bitcoin treasury companies, or digital asset treasuries (DATs), are no longer likely to expand their holdings because current valuations no longer justify additional accumulation. Consequently, the bank now assumes zero new DAT purchases going forward.

ETF Inflows Become the Sole Growth Engine

With corporate treasury buying removed from the forecast, the bank now expects ETF inflows to drive nearly all future price appreciation. Kendrick believes ETF demand will continue, although he expects the pace to slow compared with earlier periods. Even so, he estimates that quarterly ETF purchases of roughly 200,000 Bitcoin can still support long-term growth.

He also says the traditional halving cycle is no longer a reliable guide for predicting Bitcoin’s behavior. Instead, he highlights ETF flows as “a much more important price driver.”

Long-Term Target Deferred, Not Abandoned

Despite cutting near-term targets, Standard Chartered maintains a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. However, the bank now expects its $500,000 price target to be reached in 2030 rather than 2028. Kendrick continues to cite portfolio optimization analysis to support the long-term upside, noting that global portfolios still hold relatively little Bitcoin. Even so, he expects the adjustment process to take longer without fresh demand from corporate treasuries.

“We think crypto winters are a thing of the past. As a result, we continue to expect Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs over the next several years. However, we now anticipate a slower path because ETF buying is the only remaining leg of support,” Kendrick said.

Detailed Bitcoin Price Path: Updated Projections

Standard Chartered’s updated targets show a more gradual pace of appreciation over time. The latest forecasts, compared with earlier projections, are shown below: