EURUSD Holds in Tight Band as Traders Brace for Fed Verdict

Key Moments

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December stands at 87%, sharply pressuring the USD.
EURUSD has remained confined to roughly a 150-pip range since October amid subdued macroeconomic shifts.
Key technical levels include resistance near 1.1669 and 1.1728, with downside focus on a return to the 1.15 area.

Fundamental Overview

The US dollar has been under consistent pressure since Federal Reserve official Williams backed the prospect of a rate cut in December. Selling in the greenback intensified after weaker ADP data and a Bloomberg headline indicating that Hassett has emerged as the leading candidate for the Fed Chair role.

Market-implied odds now assign an 87% probability to a December rate cut, effectively treating the move as fully anticipated. With limited economic releases scheduled before the upcoming FOMC gathering, attention is expected to center on jobless claims and ADP figures, both of which have yet to show any notable improvement.

Soft economic readings are likely to keep the dollar on the defensive, while stronger numbers could generate brief recoveries. However, the main focus is firmly on the FOMC policy decision and, subsequently, the next rounds of NFP and CPI data.

On the euro side, the underlying narrative remains unchanged. European Central Bank officials continue to emphasize that the current policy stance is appropriate and that they will not react to small or short-lived deviations from the 2% inflation objective. Recent data from the Eurozone has broadly supported this neutral positioning.

EURUSD Daily Chart: Rangebound Within 150 Pips

On the daily timeframe, EURUSD has been oscillating within a band of roughly 150 pips since October. The absence of major US data surprises and the lack of significant macroeconomic shifts have contributed to a period of muted volatility.

Spot prices are gradually edging toward an important swing zone near 1.1669. This area is likely to attract selling interest, with bears looking to define risk just above that level while aiming for a move back toward the 1.15 handle. Bullish participants, in contrast, will be watching for a clean break higher to justify increased long exposure, with the 1.1728 region as the next upside target.

Timeframe	Key Levels / Signals	Bias / Strategy Focus
Daily	Resistance around 1.1669; upside target near 1.1728; downside focus on 1.15 handle	Range trading; watch for rejection or breakout at 1.1669
4 hour	Upward trendline supporting bullish momentum	Buyers leaning on trendline; sellers watching for break below
1 hour	Same trendline; red lines marking today’s average daily range	Buyers favor entries near trendline; sellers waiting for confirmed breakdown

EURUSD 4-Hour Chart: Trendline Supports Bullish Tone

On the 4-hour chart, an ascending trendline is currently framing the upward bias. Buyers are likely to continue using this trendline as a reference point, placing risk just below it while attempting to push the pair toward fresh highs.

Sellers are instead focused on a decisive move beneath the trendline, which could open the door to a downside extension toward the 1.15 handle as the next major objective.

EURUSD 1-Hour Chart: Risk-Reward Skewed Around the Trendline

The 1-hour view provides limited additional insight beyond what is visible on the higher timeframes. The prevailing setup suggests that long positions may offer a more favorable risk-reward profile when initiated near the rising trendline, where risk can be more tightly controlled.

For bears, a clear break below this same trendline would likely be needed to build stronger conviction in a move lower. The red lines on the chart mark the average daily range for the current session, helping traders contextualize intraday price swings.