Spot Gold registered a fresh all-time high of $4,179.55/oz. on Tuesday, as reignited US-China trade concerns along with expectations of more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts heightened the safe-haven appeal of the metal.
Last Friday, the Trump administration imposed additional 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and unveiled new export controls on key software, which will take effect on November 1st.
Over the weekend, China said the latest US tariffs were hypocritical and it also defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment. Yet, Beijing abstained from imposing new levies on US goods.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of essential macro data, which complicated assessments of the US economy’s state, as investors had to rely on secondary, non-government data prints.
Markets are now pricing in about a 98% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October and a 95% chance of another 25 bps cut in December.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address the NABE annual meeting later today, which may provide fresh clues on policy path.
Spot Gold was last up 0.31% on the day to trade at $4,122.94 per troy ounce.
The BofA Global Research expects Gold to rise to $5,000/oz. in 2026, supported by the “White House’s unorthodox policy framework”, including fiscal deficits, rising debt and a push to lower interest rates.
Strong central bank buying, US tariff policies, potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, robust ETF inflows and geopolitical uncertainty have fueled Gold’s rally to a series of record highs this year. Year-to-date, the yellow metal has surged 57.11%.
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