Yesterday’s trade (in GMT terms) saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.2851-1.3018. The pair closed at 1.2984, edging up 0.22% compared to Fridays close. It has been the 133rd gain in the past 291 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high was an exact test of the high from July 8th. The major pair has pared its slump to 1.72% so far during the current month, after depreciating 8.06% in June.
At 6:46 GMT today GBP/USD was gaining 0.76% on the day to trade at 1.3083. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3092 during the mid phase of the Asian trading session, overcoming the upper range breakout level (R4), and a daily low at 1.2973 during early Asian trade.
On Tuesday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.
Fundamentals
United Kingdom
BoEs Carney speech
At 9:00 GMT Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is expected to take a statement. Any remarks related to economic outlook or the Banks monetary policy would heighten GBP volatility.
United States
Fed speakers
Markets will be paying attention to the statements by several Fed officials. At 13:15 GMT Daniel Tarullo, is to speak, followed by the Fed President for St. Louis, James Bullard, at 13:35 GMT and the Fed President for Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, at 21:30 GMT. Any hints regarding the Banks policy stance would heighten USD volatility.
Job Openings
The number of job openings in the United States probably decreased to 5.700 million in May from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. If so, this would be the lowest number of job openings since February, when a revised up 5.608 million positions were reported. In April a total of 5.788 million job openings were estimated, as the number of job openings waiting to be filled rose in wholesale trade (+65 000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+58 000), durable goods manufacturing (+46 000), real estate, rental and leasing (+41 000). At the same time, the number of openings decreased in professional and business services (-274 000).
This indicator refers to all job positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. A lower-than-projected level of job openings will usually have a limited bearish effect on the US Dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official report at 14:00 GMT.
Bond Yield Spread
The yield on UK 2-year government bonds went as high as 0.173% on July 11th, after which it closed at 0.165% to add 4.2 basis points (0.042 percentage point) compared to July 8th.
Meanwhile, the yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.661% on July 11th, or the highest level since June 24th (0.755%), after which it fell to 0.657% at the close to add 4.4 basis points (0.044 percentage point) compared to July 8th.
The spread between 2-year US and 2-year UK bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, widened to 0.492% on July 11th from 0.490% on July 8th. The July 11th yield spread has been the highest one since June 2nd, when the difference was 0.503%.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.2999
R2 – 1.3015
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – 1.3030
R4 (Long Breakout) – 1.3076
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – 1.3129
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – 1.3153
S1 – 1.2969
S2 – 1.2953
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – 1.2938
S4 (Short Breakout) – 1.2892
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – 1.2839
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – 1.2815
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3031
R1 – 1.3266
R2 – 1.3576
R3 – 1.3811
R4 – 1.4046
S1 – 1.2721
S2 – 1.2486
S3 – 1.2176
S4 – 1.1866
In monthly terms, for GBP/USD we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3817
R1 – 1.4517
R2 – 1.5722
R3 – 1.6422
R4 – 1.7121
S1 – 1.2612
S2 – 1.1912
S3 – 1.0707
S4 – 0.9501
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