Forex Market: AUD/USD trading outlook for July 11th

Friday’s trade (in GMT terms) saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7471-0.7573. The pair closed at 0.7572, surging 1.18% compared to Fridays close. It has been the 12th gain in the past 22 trading days and also the steepest one since June 23rd, when the major pair rose 1.47%. The daily high has been the highest level since June 24th, when a high of 0.7653 was registered. In weekly terms, AUD/USD added 0.99% to its value during the current week. It has been the 15th gain in the past 27 weeks and also a sixth consecutive one. The major pair has gone up 1.62% so far during the current month, following a 3.01% advance in June.

On Monday (July 11th) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.

Fundamentals

Australia

Home Lending

The number of loans granted for home purchases in Australia probably shrank 2.0% in May from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. If so, it would be the sharpest monthly decrease since January, when a revised up 4.4% drop was reported. In April home lending expanded at a monthly rate of 1.7%. This indicator reflects demand levels in Australias housing sector. The official report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected at 1:30 GMT on Monday (July 11th).

United States

Feds George statement

At 14:00 GMT the Federal Reserve President for Kansas City, Esther George, is expected to take a statement. Any remarks or hints in regard to economic outlook, or the Banks monetary policy stance would heighten USD volatility.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the business week ended on July 8th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.6567, or strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CHF (0.2476, or weak)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (0.2020, or weak)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (0.1240, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (-0.0291, or very weak)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.1191, or weak)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with NZD/USD.

2. AUD/USD moved almost independently compared to USD/CAD during the week.

3. The correlation between AUD/USD and the remaining major pairs was insignificant.

Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the Monday levels of importance for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7539
R1 – 0.7606
R2 – 0.7641
R3 – 0.7708
R4 – 0.7776

S1 – 0.7504
S2 – 0.7437
S3 – 0.7402
S4 – 0.7368

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly levels of importance for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7518
R1 – 0.7627
R2 – 0.7683
R3 – 0.7792
R4 – 0.7902

S1 – 0.7462
S2 – 0.7353
S3 – 0.7297
S4 – 0.7242

In monthly terms, for AUD/USD we have the following pivots:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7433
R1 – 0.7667
R2 – 0.7883
R3 – 0.8117
R4 – 0.8351

S1 – 0.7217
S2 – 0.6983
S3 – 0.6767
S4 – 0.6551