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Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4397-1.4582. The pair closed at 1.4520, rising 0.66% compared to Thursdays close. It has been the 22nd gain in the past 51 trading days, a second consecutive one and also the steepest one since May 24th, when the pair appreciated 1.04%. In weekly terms, GBP/USD lost 0.72% of its value during the past week. It has been the 10th drop in the past 22 weeks and also the sharpest one since the week ended on May 8th. The major pair has gone down 0.57% so far in June, following a 0.92% drop in the prior month.

At 7:30 GMT today GBP/USD was edging up 0.10% on the day to trade at 1.4403. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4481 during early Asian trade and a daily low at 1.4352 during the early phase of the Asian trading session as well.

On Monday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following event as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Feds Yellen Statement

At 16:00 GMT the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, is expected to take a statement. Any remarks on monetary policy or US macroeconomic outlook, especially after the disappointing employment growth numbers last month, would certainly heighten USD volatility.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the business week ended on June 3rd and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

GBP/USD to USD/JPY (0.2393, or weak)
GBP/USD to EUR/USD (0.1153, or weak)
GBP/USD to USD/CHF (-0.0505, or very weak)
GBP/USD to AUD/USD (-0.1623, or weak)
GBP/USD to NZD/USD (-0.3117, or moderate)
GBP/USD to USD/CAD (-0.4478, or moderate)

1. During the examined period GBP/USD moved almost independently compared to USD/CHF.

2. GBP/USD moved to a moderate extent in the opposite direction compared to NZD/USD and USD/CAD during the past week.

3. The correlation between GBP/USD and USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD was insignificant.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.4537
R2 – 1.4554
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4571
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4622

S1 – 1.4503
S2 – 1.4486
S3 (range support) – 1.4469
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4418

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4543
R1 – 1.4701
R2 – 1.4883
R3 – 1.5041

S1 – 1.4361
S2 – 1.4203
S3 – 1.4021

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