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Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4588-1.4643. The pair closed at 1.4633, inching up 0.06% compared to Fridays close. It has been the 20th gain in the past 47 trading days. The daily low has been the lowest level since May 24th, when a low of 1.4468 was registered. The major pair has increased its advance to 0.46% so far during the current month, following two consecutive months of gains.

At 6:39 GMT today GBP/USD was gaining 0.33% on the day to trade at 1.4682. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4724 during the mid phase of the Asian trading session and a daily low at 1.4625 during early Asian trade.

On Tuesday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.


United States

Personal Income, Personal Spending

Personal spending in the United States probably rose 0.7% in April, according to market expectations, while personal income was probably up for a 13th consecutive month in April, increasing at a monthly rate of 0.4%. If expectations were met, Aprils rate of increase in spending would be the steepest one since May 2015, when a gain rate of 0.7% was reported.

Consumer spending, which accounts for over two thirds of the nations GDP, rose 0.1% (USD 12.8 billion) in March. At the same time, personal income increased 0.4% (USD 57.4 billion) during the same month, while disposable personal income (DPI) rose by USD 50.4 billion.

Wages and salaries were up USD 29.2 billion in March, following a drop by USD 4.6 billion in the preceding month, while supplements to wages and salaries rose USD 5.4 billion in March, after going up USD 3.0 billion in February. Private sector wages and salaries went up USD 26.3 billion in March, after a drop by USD 8.0 billion a month ago, while government wages and salaries rose USD 2.8 billion, after going up by USD 3.4 billion in February.

Higher-than-expected rates of increase imply good employment conditions and, therefore, are dollar positive. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is to publish the official figures at 12:30 GMT.

Chicago Manufacturing PMI

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) probably improved to a reading of 50.9 in May, according to market expectations, from 50.4 during the prior month. The latter has been the lowest reading since February, when the PMI came in at 47.6. The index reflects business conditions in the regions manufacturing sector and is interrelated with the Manufacturing Index, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above the key level of 50.0 is indicative of optimism (expansion in manufacturing activity). In case the PMI improved more than forecast, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The ISM-Chicago Inc. will release the official reading of this key barometer at 13:45 GMT.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Confidence among consumers in the United States probably improved in May, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 96.0, according to market expectations. In April the gauge was reported at 94.2.

This indicator measures the level of individuals confidence in the US economic development. It is considered as a leading indicator, as it gives an early insight into consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of the nations GDP.

In case the index came above expectations, this would have a strong bullish effect on the US dollar, as higher confidence suggests a greater willingness to spend and, respectively, an accelerated economic growth. The Conference Board research group is to publish the official index reading at 15:00 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.4638
R2 – 1.4643
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4648
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4663

S1 – 1.4628
S2 – 1.4623
S3 (range support) – 1.4618
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4603

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4603
R1 – 1.4765
R2 – 1.4906
R3 – 1.5068

S1 – 1.4462
S2 – 1.4300
S3 – 1.4159 is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover Forex, Price Action and Social Trading.

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