Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4375-1.4480. The pair closed at 1.4411, edging down 0.13% on a daily basis. It has been the 17th drop in the past 32 trading days and also a fifth consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since April 22nd, when a low of 1.4310 was registered. The major pair has extended its loss to 1.39% so far during the current month, following two consecutive months of advance. In April it went up 1.75%.
At 6:29 GMT today GBP/USD was inching up 0.04% on the day to trade at 1.4417. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4423 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, overshooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 1.4389 at 5:31 GMT.
On Tuesday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United Kingdom
Balance of Trade
The deficit on United Kingdom’s goods trade balance probably narrowed to GBP 11.200 billion in March, according to market expectations, from a deficit figure of GBP 11.964 billion during the preceding month. If so, this would be the lowest deficit since December 2015, when a revised up gap of GBP 10.450 billion was reported. Februarys deficit figure has been the largest on record for a February month.
This indicator is also known as visible trade balance, because it reflects the difference in value between exported and imported physical goods, without the inclusion of exported and imported services. Since UK economy is to a great extent dependent on trade, the visible trade balance is considered as a key factor, providing clues over the sustainability of economic growth.
The gap on the nations total trade balance narrowed to GBP 4.840 billion in February from a revised up GBP 5.234 billion deficit posted in January, as UK exports surged, while imports remained almost unchanged.
In February, total exports rose at a monthly rate of 0.9% to reach GBP 42 billion, or the highest value in the past four months, as shipments of goods went up by GBP 0.3 billion to GBP 23.2 billion, while exports of services increased by GBP 0.1 billion, according to the report by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Total imports remained almost unchanged at GBP 46.9 billion during the same month. Purchases of goods went up by GBP 0.1 billion to reach GBP 33.3 billion in February, supported by aircraft (up GBP 0.5 billion), mechanical machinery (up GBP 0.4 billion) and jewelry (up GBP 0.2 billion).
In case the UK trade deficit narrowed more than anticipated in March, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the sterling, because of positive implications regarding UK economic growth. The Office for National Statistics will publish the official trade data at 8:30 GMT.
United States
Job Openings
The number of job openings in the United States probably decreased to 5.412 million in March from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. If so, this would be the lowest number of job openings since October 2015, when a revised down 5.349 million positions were reported. In February a total of 5.445 million job openings were estimated, as the number of job openings waiting to be filled fell by 177 000 in the private sector and was almost unchanged in the governmental sector. In February there were fewer job openings in health care and social assistance (-147 000), finance and insurance (-54 000), and mining and logging (-8 000). At the same time, the number of job openings rose in educational services (+48 000) and federal government (+19 000).
This indicator refers to all job positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. A lower-than-projected level of job openings will usually have a limited bearish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official report at 14:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.4421
R2 – 1.4430
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4441
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4469
S1 – 1.4401
S2 – 1.4392
S3 (range support) – 1.4382
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4353
By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.4538
R1 – 1.4661
R2 – 1.4892
R3 – 1.5015
S1 – 1.4307
S2 – 1.4184
S3 – 1.3953
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