Friday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2793-1.2902. The pair closed at 1.2822, edging down 0.18% on a daily basis. It has been the 35th drop in the past 74 trading days. In weekly terms, USD/CAD lost 1.28% of its value during the week ended on April 17th. It has been the 12th drop in the past 15 weeks and also a third consecutive one. USD/CAD has depreciated 0.53% so far during the current month, following two consecutive months of decline.
At 8:37 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.76% on the day to trade at 1.2920. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2990 during the early phase of the European trading session, or the highest level since April 11th, and a daily low at 1.2919 at 7:55 GMT.
The pair started the week with a massive gap up, following the outcome from the OPEC summit in Doha during the weekend, as no agreement on a potential freeze of oil production has been reached. Iran decided not to attend the meeting, while Saudi Arabia stood firm not to freeze oil output, unless other key producers of the commodity took steps in that direction.
Crude oil futures retreated for a third straight day on April 15th. Friday marked the 41st drop in oil prices out of the past 85 trading days. Oil futures for June delivery went down as low as $39.98 per barrel on April 15th and closed at $40.36, tumbling 2.75% on the day. As of 8:46 GMT today the commodity was edging up 0.15% to trade at $40.42, after going down as low as $39.36 per barrel earlier.
On Monday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Feds Dudley speech
At 12:30 GMT the Fed President for New York, William Dudley, is expected to take a statement. His remarks may introduce limited-to-moderate volatility of the currency pairs containing the US dollar.
NAHB Housing Market Index
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably rose to 59.0 in April, according to market expectations, from 58.0 in March. If so, this would be the 22nd consecutive month, when the gauge stood in the area above 50.0. The indicator is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher-than-projected readings would provide a moderate support to the US dollar. The official report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.
Correlation with other Majors
Taking into account the week ended on April 15th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:
USD/CAD to EUR/USD (0.1379, or weak)
USD/CAD to USD/CHF (-0.1180, or weak)
USD/CAD to USD/JPY (-0.3280, or moderate)
USD/CAD to GBP/USD (-0.3311, or moderate)
USD/CAD to AUD/USD (-0.6224, or strong)
USD/CAD to NZD/USD (-0.7944, or strong)
1. During the examined period USD/CAD moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
2. USD/CAD moved to a moderate extent in the opposite direction compared to USD/JPY and GBP/USD during the past week.
3. The correlation between USD/CAD and EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF was insignificant.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.2832
R2 – 1.2842
R3 (range resistance) – 1.2852
R4 (range breakout) – 1.2882
S1 – 1.2812
S2 – 1.2802
S3 (range support) – 1.2792
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2762
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.2861
R1 – 1.2978
R2 – 1.3134
R3 – 1.3251
S1 – 1.2705
S2 – 1.2588
S3 – 1.2432
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