Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3658-1.3794. The pair closed at 1.3704, losing 0.62% on a daily basis. It has been the 15th drop in the past 35 trading days. In addition, the daily low has been the lowest level since February 18th, when a low of 1.3649 was registered.
At 7:46 GMT today USD/CAD was edging up 0.15% for the day to trade at 1.3725. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3730 at 7:37 GMT, overshooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.3695 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
Canada’s dollar again tested the recent highs against its US counterpart, as crude oil futures recorded a 12.28% surge on Monday compared to last Fridays close. February 22nd marked the 22nd gain in oil prices out of the past 47 trading days and also the sharpest one since February 12th. Oil futures for April delivery went up as high as $33.83 per barrel on February 22nd, or the highest level since February 1st ($34.18), and closed at a level of $33.28. As of 7:54 GMT today the commodity was losing 1.65% on a daily basis to trade at $32.73 per barrel, after going down as low as $32.64 earlier. Oil has trimmed its slump to 2.65% so far during the current month.
On Tuesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index
At 14:00 GMT Standard & Poors will report on the performance of its House Price Index, which measures the change in prices of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas across the US. The report serves as a gauge of the US housing markets health. According to the median estimate by experts, home prices in the 20 areas probably rose 5.8% in December compared to December 2014, while matching the rate in November. If expectations were met, Decembers rate of increase would be the sharpest one since July 2014, when home prices climbed 6.7% year-on-year. Within a recovering economy, a sharper-than-projected gain in prices will usually have a moderate bullish effect on the local currency.
Existing Home Sales
The index of existing home sales in the United States probably dropped 2.9% to a level of 5.35 million in January compared to December, according to the median estimate by experts. In December sales were 14.7% higher from a month ago to reach 5.46 million, or the highest level since September 2015, when a figure of 5.55 million was reported. Sales of new single-family houses rose 16.1% during the month, while sales of condos were up 4.9%. The median sales price climbed 1.9% in December.
In case the index dropped at a steeper monthly rate than anticipated, this would have a limited bearish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is to release the official figure at 15:00 GMT.
Consumer Confidence Index by the CB
Confidence among consumers in the United States probably worsened in February, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 97.3, according to market expectations, down from 98.1 in January. The latter has been the highest level of confidence since September 2015.
This indicator measures the level of individuals confidence in the US economic development. It is considered as a leading indicator, as it gives an early insight into consumer spending, which accounts for most of the nations GDP.
In case the index fell more than expected, this would have a strong bearish effect on the US dollar, as lower confidence suggests a lesser willingness to spend and, respectively, a slower economic growth. The Conference Board research group is to publish the official index reading at 15:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.3716
R2 – 1.3729
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3741
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3779
S1 – 1.3692
S2 – 1.3679
S3 (range support) – 1.3667
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3629
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3776
R1 – 1.3902
R2 – 1.4039
R3 – 1.4165
S1 – 1.3639
S2 – 1.3513
S3 – 1.3376
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