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Forex Market: GBP/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4233-1.4342. The pair closed at 1.4282, edging down 0.16% on a daily basis. It has been the 21st drop in the past 33 trading days and also a third consecutive one. The daily low has been the lowest level since February 1st, when a low of 1.4224 was registered.

At 7:43 GMT today GBP/USD was inching up 0.05% for the day to trade at 1.4289. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4258 at 7:01 GMT, overshooting the daily S2 level, and a daily high at 1.4312 at 4:15 GMT.

On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.


United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on February 12th, probably increased to 275 000, according to market expectations, from 269 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the lowest number of claims since the business week ended on December 18th, when 267 000 claims were reported.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 281 250, marking a decrease by 3 500 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.

The business week, which ended on February 5th has been the 48th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or rose further, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably increased to the seasonally adjusted 2 250 000 during the business week ended on February 5th from 2 239 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented a decrease by 21 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 22nd. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index probably remained in negative territory for a third consecutive month in February, coming in at a reading of -2.8, according to the median forecast by experts. In January the gauge stood at -3.5. The index is based on a monthly business survey (the Business Outlook Survey), measuring manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants give their opinion about the direction of business changes in overall economy and different indicators of activity in their companies, such as employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price etc. The survey is conducted every month since May 1968. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative projections. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions. In case the index improved more than projected, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the greenback. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from the survey at 13:30 GMT.

Leading Economic Index by the CB

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States probably dropped for a second straight month in January, going down at a monthly rate of 0.2%, according to the median estimate by experts. In December the index went down another 0.2%.

It encompasses a variety of economic indicators, which signify possible changes in overall economic activity. The index is comprised by the following components: average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials, ISM Index of New Orders, manufacturers new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders, building permits, new private housing units, Stock prices, 500 common stocks, Leading Credit Index, interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds, average consumer expectations for business conditions. A worse-than-expected performance of the index would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar. The Conference Board research group will release the official report at 15:00 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.4292
R2 – 1.4302
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4312
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4342

S1 – 1.4272
S2 – 1.4262
S3 (range support) – 1.4252
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4222

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.4479
R1 – 1.4608
R2 – 1.4708
R3 – 1.4837

S1 – 1.4379
S2 – 1.4250
S3 – 1.4150

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