Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0812-1.0915. The pair closed at 1.0896, advancing 0.65% on a daily basis. It has been the 10th gain in the past 21 trading days and also the sharpest one since January 7th, when the pair added 1.44%. The daily low was a higher-low test of the low from January 29th.
At 7:15 GMT today EUR/USD was edging up 0.08% for the day to trade at 1.0905. The pair touched a daily high at 1.0919 at 4:40 GMT, overshooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.0886 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
On Tuesday EUR/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
Euro area
Germany – change in unemployment, rate of unemployment
The number of the unemployed people in Germany probably dropped by 7 000 in January, according to the median forecast by experts, following another drop by 14 000, reported in December. If so, January would be the fourth consecutive month, when the number of the unemployed persons was lower. A decrease implies that consumer spending may be more active, while the latter is tightly related to economic growth. A surge in the number of the unemployed suggests the opposite scenario.
At the same time, the seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment in the country probably remained at 6.3% for the third straight month in January, according to market expectations. This has been the lowest rate on record.
The seasonally adjusted harmonized jobless rate remained at 4.5% for a fourth straight month in November. It has been the lowest rate since mid-1981. The number of unemployed persons was unchanged at 1.90 million in November compared to October, while employment was up 0.1% to 40.19 million persons during the same period.
The unemployment rate for people aged between 15 and 24 decreased to 7.0% in November from 7.1% in October, while falling from 7.3%, recorded in November 2014.
In case the number of people unemployed decreased more than projected and the unemployment rate met expectations or dropped further, this would strongly support demand for the euro. The Federal Statistics Office will release the official numbers at 8:55 GMT.
Italy – rate of unemployment
The rate of unemployment in Italy probably remained at 11.3% for a second consecutive month in December, according to the median forecast by experts. It has been the lowest rate since December 2012, when unemployment was reported at 11.2%. The number of unemployed people decreased by 48 000 to reach 2.871 million in November, while the number of people in employment went up by 36 000 to reach 22.480 million. Unemployment among people aged between 15 and 24 dropped to 38.1% in November from 39.3% in the prior month, according to the National Institute of Statistics. Novembers youth unemployment has been the lowest since June 2013.
In case the rate of unemployment in the country met expectations or fell even further, this might provide a limited-to-moderate support to the single currency. Istat is to release the official report at 9:00 GMT.
Eurozone – rate of unemployment
The rate of unemployment in the Eurozone probably remained at 10.5% for a second straight month in December, according to market expectations. It has been the lowest rate since October 2011, when the regions unemployment was reported at 10.2%.
In November the lowest rates of unemployment were registered in Germany (4.5%), the Czech Republic (4.6%) and Malta (5.1%), while the highest rates were in Greece (24.6%) and Spain (21.4%).
The EU 28 unemployment rate was reported at 9.1% in November, down from 9.2% in October and down from 10% in November a year earlier. It has been the lowest rate since July 2009.
According to data by Eurostat, 22.159 million people in the EU28, of whom 16.924 million were in the Euro area, were unemployed in November. Compared to October, the number of people unemployed decreased by 179 000 in the European Union and by 130 000 in the Eurozone. Compared to November 2014, unemployment was lower in the EU28 (a decrease by 2.146 million), while unemployed people in the Euro area were 1.573 million fewer.
Unemployed are considered to be all persons aged between 15 and 74, who have not been hired during the survey period, have been actively seeking employment during the past four weeks and are able to accept any job proposition right away or in two weeks time. A drop in unemployment in the region would have a strong bullish effect on the single currency. The official report by Eurostat is due out at 10:00 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.0905
R2 – 1.0915
R3 (range resistance) – 1.0924
R4 (range breakout) – 1.0953
S1 – 1.0887
S2 – 1.0877
S3 (range support) – 1.0868
S4 (range breakout) – 1.0839
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.0864
R1 – 1.0943
R2 – 1.1048
R3 – 1.1127
S1 – 1.0759
S2 – 1.0680
S3 – 1.0575
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