Forex Market: AUD/USD daily trading outlook

Written by Miroslav Marinov

Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at TradingPedia, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market, as currently his focus is set on the major currencies of eight developed nations worldwide.

, | Updated: October 30, 2024

Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7043-0.7172. The pair closed at 0.7079, plummeting 1.15% on a daily basis, while marking its fifth consecutive trading day of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since November 11th 2005, when a low of 0.7022 was registered.

At 10:51 GMT today AUD/USD was losing 0.83% for the day to trade at 0.7014. The pair touched a daily low at 0.7008 at 10:50 GMT, or a level unseen since October 2nd 2015, and a daily high at 0.7086 during the early hours of Asian trading session. Support may be received at the low from October 2nd 2015 (0.7000) and then – at the low from September 30th 2015 (0.6977). Resistance, on the other hand, may be encountered at the hourly 21-period EMA (0.7052) and then – in the area around the current daily high (0.7086).

On Thursday AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the macroeconomic reports listed below.

Fundamentals

Australia

AiG Performance of Construction Index

At 22:30 GMT the Australian Industry Group (AIG) is expected to announce the results from its survey on short-term and intermediate-term conditions in the sector of construction during December. Surveyed companies answer questions associated with production, employment, prices, supplier deliveries, inventories and new orders. The seasonally adjusted Performance of Construction Index (PCI) came in at a reading of 50.7 in November, marking a fourth straight month of expansion. Values above the key level of 50.0 are indicative of optimism (increasing activity). An improvement in the value of this indicator in December would provide a limited support to the Australian dollar.

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on January 1st, probably decreased to 275 000, according to market expectations, from 287 000 reported in the preceding week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on July 3rd, when a figure of 297 000 was reported.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 277 000, marking an increase by 4 500 compared to the preceding week’s unrevised average.

The business week, which ended on December 25th has been the 43rd consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or dropped further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted 2 193 000 during the business week ended on December 25th from 2 198 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 3 000 compared to the unrevised number of claims reported in the week ended on December 11th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.