Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2768 – 1.2689. The pair closed 0.1% higher at 1.2731, rising for a fourth day.

At 06:45 GMT today USD/CAD was down 0.28% to trade at 1.2708. The cross held in a daily range of 1.2691 – 1.2748 and is up 1.1% for the week, following a combined 2.5% jump during the previous two weeks.

Fundamentals

United States

The number of people in the United States who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended July 4th probably slid to 275 000 from 281 000 in the previous seven days. The 4-week moving average, an indicator used to iron out week-to-week volatility, was at 274 750 last week, 1 000 above the previous weeks average.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the count of claims dropped more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to 2 248 000 during the week ended June 27th from 2 264 000 the previous period. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Canada

Housing starts in Canada probably fell to the seasonally adjusted annual level of 190 000 in June, according to expectations, from 201 700 in May, which, if not revised downwards, would be the highest since May 2013. Housing starts are considered a key indicator reflecting the strength of the nation’s housing sector. In case the number of housing starts dropped more than expected, this might have a bearish effect on the loonie. Canada’s Mortgage and Housing Corporation will release the official numbers at 12:15 GMT.

Meanwhile, selling prices of new homes in Canada probably rose in May by 0.1% from a month earlier, according to analysts expectations, following another 0.1% increase in April. Home values climbed at the annualized rate of 1.1% in April following up on an 1.2% increase in March. The New Housing Price Index is a key indicator, reflecting the health of Canadian housing market. In case prices surged more than anticipated, this would be an indication of strong demand and would therefore have a bullish effect on the loonie. Statistics Canada will release the official data at 12:30 GMT.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 1.2729. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 1.2770, it will encounter next resistance at 1.2808. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 1.2849.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 1.2691, it will next see support at 1.2650. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 1.2612.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2504. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2704, R2 – 1.2834, R3 – 1.3034. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2374, S2 – 1.2174, S3 – 1.2044.