Forex Market: USD/MXN daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw USD/MXN within the range of 15.5920-15.3240. The pair closed at 15.5784, jumping 1.50% on a daily basis and settling the week 1.2% higher.

At 6:50 GMT today USD/MXN was down 0.21% for the day to trade at 15.5333. The cross held in a daily range of 15.5139 – 15.5919.

Fundamentals

United States

Factory orders in the United States probably rose 2.0% in March on a monthly basis, following a 0.2% increase in the prior month, which ended six straight monthly declines. Excluding the sector of transportation, factory orders rose 0.8% in February, snapping four consecutive monthly contractions.

This indicator presents the total value of new purchase orders, placed at manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods, and can provide insight into inflation and growth in the US manufacturing sector. In case new orders rose more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The US Census Bureau will release the official data at 14:00 GMT.

Mexico

Activity in Mexicos sector of manufacturing probably expanded in April, but at a slower rate compared to a month earlier. The respective Purchasing Managers Index by HSBC and Markit Economics will probably register at 53.50 compared to 53.80 in March. The indicator, which is based on a monthly survey, registered an all-time high at 57.10 in December 2012 and an all-time low of 49.70 in July 2013. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism among responding companies. In case the PMI rose more than expected, this would support the peso. The official reading is scheduled for release at 14:30 GMT.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 15.4981. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 15.6723, it will encounter next resistance at 15.7661. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 15.9403.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 15.4043, it will next see support at 15.2301. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 15.1363.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 15.4366. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 15.7338, R2 – 15.8893, R3 – 16.1865. The three key support levels are: S1 – 15.2811, S2 – 14.9839, S3 – 14.8284.