Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2431-1.2548. The daily high has also been the highest level since February 12th, when a high of 1.2648 was recorded. The pair closed at 1.2496, up 0.33% on a daily basis and extending gains from Wednesday.
At 8:53 GMT today USD/CAD was down 0.26% for the day to trade at 1.2463. The pair touched a daily low at 1.2462 at 8:52 GMT.
Fundamentals
United States
Manufacturing PMI by Markit – preliminary estimate
Manufacturing activity in the United States probably remained little changed in February, with the corresponding preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index coming in at a reading of 53.8. In January and December the final seasonally adjusted PMI stood at 53.9, which has been the lowest reading since January 2014, when the indicator was reported at 53.7. In January output growth rebounded, while new orders slowed and input prices fell for the first time in two-and-a-half years.
According to Markit’s statement: ”Survey respondents noted that improving economic conditions had boosted sales at the start of the year, but export demand remained subdued. There were also reports from investment goods producers that weaker spending patterns among clients in the oil and gas sector had contributed to weaker new business growth.”
”The latest survey indicated a reduction in manufacturers’ average cost burdens for the first time in two-and-a-half years. Anecdotal evidence attributed the slight fall in input costs to lower fuel, energy and commodity prices at the start of 2015. Meanwhile, average prices charged by U.S. manufacturing companies increased marginally, but the rate of inflation was only slightly faster than the seven-month low registered in December.”
Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism (expanding activity). Lower-than-expected PMI readings would certainly have a bearish effect on the US dollar. The preliminary data by Markit Economics is due out at 14:45 GMT.
Canada
Retail Sales
Retail sales in Canada probably dropped 0.4% in December on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts, following a 0.4% gain in November. If so, this would be the fastest monthly rate of decrease since December 2013, when sales fell 1.9%. Retail sales, excluding sales of automobiles, probably decreased 0.8% in December compared to November, after a 0.7% gain in the preceding month. Large-ticket purchases are excluded due to their high volatility, which could influence the general trend. In case retail sales dropped more than anticipated, this would lead to a sell-off in the Canadian dollar. Statistics Canada is to release the official report at 13:30 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2492. In case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2552, it will probably continue up to test 1.2609. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2669.
If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.2435, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2375. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2318.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.2347, M2 – 1.2405, M3 – 1.2464, M4 – 1.2522, M5 – 1.2581, M6 – 1.2639.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2522. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2626, R2 – 1.2803, R3 – 1.2907. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2345, S2 – 1.2241, S3 – 1.2064.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
