Gold trading outlook: futures trade near 4-month high after Swiss shock

Gold slipped on Friday to end five days of increases but remained near a four-month high and is headed for a second weekly jump as a surprise move from Switzerland boosted safe-heaven demand.

Comex gold for delivery in February dropped 0.51% to $1 258.3 per troy ounce by 07:53 GMT, shifting in a daily range of $1 264.0 – $1 256.6. The precious metal settled 2.45% higher on Thursday at $1 264.8, having earlier risen to $1 267.2, the highest since September 8.

Gold scored a hefty daily increase on Thursday as investors sought safety in the precious metal amid market volatility caused by an unexpected decision by the Swiss National Bank to remove a cap on the franc.

“Gold looks like the flavor of the month at the moment and has now pushed above some key downward trend lines against the dollar,” said James Gardiner, a trader at MKS Group, cited by CNBC.

The yellow metal is up 2.8% so far this week and 6% for the month, poised to cap its biggest weekly increase since March.

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed ETF, marked their biggest daily increase since August 2011 and climbed 9.56 tons on Thursday to 717.15 tons. Changes in holdings typically move gold prices in the same direction.

Despite the nearing Lunar New Year holiday, when Chinese consumers exchange gold gifts, physical demand in Asia fell. The precious metal was trading around 1$ higher an ounce to the global benchmark, compared to premiums of $3-$4 during the previous session.

On Thursday the Swiss National Bank called the cap, set in 2011, on the franc against the euro unsustainable and removed it, disrupting operation at several major Swiss banks.

Following the news, the Swiss franc jumped almost 30% against the euro. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is projected to announce a stimulus program in order to fight deflation.

However, Swiss equities and bonds fell after the news on investor concerns for the countrys economy, which is quite dependent on exports. Around 40% of Switzerlands shipped goods and services go to Europe, and domestic companies warned that profits will be hurt by the stronger franc.

In the mean time, US stock also fell, scoring a fifth consecutive day of declines.

The US dollar index for settlement in March was down 0.06% at 92.555 at 07:59 GMT. The US currency gauge gained 0.28% on Thursday to 92.608, holding in a daily range of 93.300 – 91.495. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of foreign currencies and curbs their appeal as an alternative investment, and vice versa.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, February gold’s central pivot point on the Comex stands at $1 252.7. If the contract breaks its first resistance level at $1 279.3, next barrier will be at $1 293.8. In case the second key resistance is broken, the precious metal may attempt to advance to $1 320.4.

If the contract manages to breach the S1 level at $1 238.2, it will next see support at $1 211.6. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside may extend to $1 197.1.