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Gold trading outlook: futures swing back to gains on Greek worries

Gold edged up on Friday to end two days of losses ahead of the US December employment report, heading to its first weekly increase in a month after it was boosted by Greek political turmoil and strong Chinese demand.

Comex gold for delivery in February climbed 0.22% to $1 211.1 per troy ounce by 07:58 GMT, having shifted in a daily range of $1 214.3 and $1 207.4. The precious metal fell 0.18% on Thursday to $1 208.5.

The contract climbed 2% through the week as it found support from investors jitters spurred by plunging oil prices and a fall in global equities, prompted by worries that Greece will be the first country to leave the euro zone.

Gold was also aided by higher Chinese demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, celebrated in China on February 19-20th, when people exchange gold gifts or buy the metal for good luck.

On Friday the yellow metal was traded $5 to $6 higher than the global benchmark on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, outlining robust demand.

“Safe-haven demand appears to be rising again as oil prices slump and concerns grow about Greece exiting the euro,” ScotiaMocatta analysts said in a note, cited by the CNBC. “We are wary that the safe-haven buying may not last if concerns over Greece subside.”

The Syriza party, which has promised to lift Berlin-imposed austerity policies and wipe out the majority of the countrys debt, has a small lead over its rivals and is poised to win the elections scheduled on January 25.

However, golds movements turned negative during the recent two sessions as global equities rebounded and the US reported data above expectations.

The US dollar index for settlement in March was up 0.02% at 92.580 at 07:59 GMT, holding in a daily range of 92.585 – 92.360. The US currency gauge gained 0.53% on Thursday to 92.602. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of foreign currencies and curbs their appeal as an alternative investment, and vice versa.

Traders will be watching closely as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its non-farm payrolls report later today. Stronger data would hurt golds performance and could also prompt Fed officials to launch an interest rate hike sooner then expected.

”The employment numbers are generally influential in determining near-term gold prices. A good number, near or above consensus, could weigh on gold,” James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities, wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg.

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed ETF, did not change on Thursday and remained at 704.83 tons, the lowest since September 2008. Holding changes typically move gold prices in the same direction. Assets fell 11% last year compared to a 41% drop in 2013.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, February gold’s central pivot point on the Comex stands at $1 209.8. If the contract breaks its first resistance level at $1 215.5, next barrier will be at $1 222.4. In case the second key resistance is broken, the precious metal may attempt to advance to $1 228.1.

If the contract manages to breach the S1 level at $1 202.9, it will next see support at $1 197.2. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside may extend to $1 190.3.

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